Tracking Growth and the Business Cycle: a Stochastic Common Cycle Model for the Euro Area
AbstractThis paper proposes a new model-based method to obtain a coincident indicator for the business cycle. A dynamic factor model with trend components and a common cycle component is considered which can be estimated using standard maximum likelihood methods. The multivariate unobserved components model includes a stationary higher order cycle. Also higher order trends can be part of the analysis. These generalisationslead to a business cycle that is similar to a band-pass one. Furthermore, cycle shifts for individual time series are incorporated within the model and estimated simultaneously with the remaining parameters. This feature permits the use of leading, coincident and lagging variables to obtain thebusiness cycle coincident indicator without prior analysis of their lead-lag relationship. Besides the business cycle indicator, the model-based approach also allows to get a growth rate indicator. In the empirical analysis for the Euro area, both indicators are obtained based on nine key economic timeseries including gross domestic product, industrial production,unemployment, confidence indicators and interest rate spread. This analysis contrasts sharply with earlier multivariate approaches. In particular, our more parsimonious approach leads to a growth rate indicator for the Euro area that is similar to the one of EuroCOIN. The latter is based on a more involvedapproach by any standard and uses hundreds of time series from individual countries belonging to the Euro area.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 03-069/4.
Date of creation: 01 Sep 2003
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Band-pass filter; Coincident indicator; Dynamic factor model; Kalman filter; Leading indicator; Unobserved components time series model; Phase shift; Revisions;
Other versions of this item:
- João Valle e Azevedo & Siem Jan Koopman & António Rua, 2003. "Tracking Growth and the Business Cycle: a Stochastic Common Cycle Model for the Euro Area," Working Papers w200316, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
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