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Intervention Time Series Analysis of Crime Rates


Author Info

  • Sanjeev Sridharan

    (Westat, Rockville, USA)

  • Suncica Vujic

    (Dept of Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Siem Jan Koopman

    (Dept of Econometrics, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)


The Commonwealth of Virginia abolished parole and reformed sentencing for all felony of-fenders committed on or after January 1, 1995. We examine the impact of this legislationon reported crime rates using different time series approaches. In particular, structuraltime series models are considered as an alternative to the Box-Jenkins ARIMA modelsthat form the standard time series approach to intervention analysis. Limited supportfor the deterrent impact of parole abolition and sentence reform is obtained using uni-variate modelling devices, even after including unemployment as an explanatory variabIe.Finally, the flexibility of structural time series models is illustrated by presenting a mul-tivariate analysis that provides some additional evidence of the deterrent impact of thenew legislation.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 03-040/4.

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Date of creation: 05 Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20030040

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Related research

Keywords: ARIMA models; Intervention; Parole abolition; Regression models; Sentence reform; Structural time series models.;

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  1. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543, September.
  2. Steven D. Levitt, 1995. "The Effect of Prison Population Size on Crime Rates: Evidence From Prison Overcrowding Litigation," NBER Working Papers 5119, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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