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Has the Euro increased Trade?

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Author Info
Maurice J.G. Bun () (Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, University of Amsterdam)
Franc J.G.M. Klaassen () (Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, University of Amsterdam)

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Abstract

A major economic reason for the introduction of the euro was its supposedly positive effect on intra-EMU trade. Existing studies examine this suspicion indirectly using non-EMU data and report ambiguous results. We estimate the euro-effect directly from data that include EMU observations. Using a dynamic panel model for annual bilateral exports, we find that the euro has significantly increased trade, with an effect of 4% in the first year and cumulating to around 40% in the long-run. These estimates can be useful in the debates on whether to join the euro in countries such as the U.K.

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Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 02-108/2.

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Date of creation: 24 Oct 2002
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20020108

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Related research
Keywords: Currency union dynamic panel data model EMU exports imperfect substitutes model.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data
F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Rose, Andrew K., 1991. "The role of exchange rates in a popular model of international trade : Does the 'Marshall-Lerner' condition hold?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3-4), pages 301-316, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 1999. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows: Evidence from the European Union," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 5. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1998. "Answering the Skeptics: Yes, Standard Volatility Models Do Provide Accurate Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 885-905, November.
  4. McKenzie, Michael D, 1999. " The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Klaassen, F., 1999. "Why is it so difficult to find an effect of exchange rate risk on trade?," Discussion Paper 73, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Thom, Rodney & Walsh, Brendan, 2002. "The effect of a currency union on trade: Lessons from the Irish experience," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1111-1123, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, . "Price Convergence in the European Car Market," Working Papers 2005-22, FEDEA. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Felix Chan & Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2006. "Stability tests for heterogeneous panel data," PSE Working Papers 2006-49, PSE (Ecole normale supérieure). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2005. "Business Cycle Sychronization in the Enlarged EU," CEPR Discussion Papers 5179, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Tanasie, Anca & Fratostiteanu , Cosmin, 2007. "Romania And The Euro. A Relative Positioning Among The Candidates," MPRA Paper 5832, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2007. "The single currency’s effects on Eurozone sectoral trade: winners and losers?," ISAE Working Papers 88, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
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  6. Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Paul De Grauwe (University of Leuven), 2006. "WP n. 3 - What have we learnt about monetary integration since the Maastricht Treaty? (P. De Grauwe)," Working Papers wpaper3, Macerata University, Department of Studies on Economic Development (DiSSE). [Downloadable!]
  8. Maurice J.G. Bun & Franc J.G.M. Klaassen, 2003. "The Importance of Accounting for Time Trends when Estimating the Euro Effect on Trade," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-086/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Oct 2004. [Downloadable!]
  9. Andrew Rose, 2004. "A Meta-Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," NBER Working Papers 10373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2007. "The Euro's Effect on Trade on a Dynamic Setting," ISAE Working Papers 80, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Katerina Smidkova & Ales Bulir, 2004. "Would Fast Sailing Towards the Euro Be Smooth?: What Fundamental Real Exchange Rates Tell Us About Acceding Economies," Macroeconomics 0408002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. Richard Baldwin Virginia Di Nino, 2006. "Euros and zeros: The common currency effect on trade in new goods," HEI Working Papers heiwp21-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised 31 Oct 2006. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Paul R. Bergin & Reuven Glick, 2005. "Tradability, productivity, and understanding international economic integration," Working Paper Series 2005-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Helge Berger & Volker Nitsch, 2005. "Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the Euro in Historical Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo GmbH. [Downloadable!]
  15. Richard E. Baldwin, 2006. "The euro's trade effect," Working Paper Series 594, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  16. Bris, Arturo & Koskinen, Yrjö & Nilsson, Mattias, 2003. "The Euro and Corporate Valuations," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 525, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2003. [Downloadable!]
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