Trade and Growth under Limited Liberalization
AbstractThis paper studies the connection between trade and growth in the context of a partial and inconsistent liberalization process in a specific Eastern European country in transition towards market economy, namely, the Republic of Belarus. The analysis of the country trade patterns during the USSR period and the years since independence revealed that unlike its close neighbors (the Baltic States and Poland) Belarus did not succeed in changing the commodity or the geographical structure of its trade. It is almost a good representation of reality to say that Belarus trades with Russia. The assessment of the rationale for the closer integration with Russia and the impact of this process on Belarus growth led us to the conclusion that the integration in the form of a non-exclusive Free Trade Area and within the framework of a wider set of international connections rather than the move towards a Customs Union (and a Union State) with Russia would be a more optimal policy for Belarus. This conclusion is supported by the results of country-specific growth regressions and of a counterfactual "free trade experiment" via a small CGE model. This paper is partially based on the work by the Authors for the World Bank Global Development Network (GDN) Research Project "Explaining Growth in the CIS Countries".
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 02-053/2.
Date of creation: 04 Jun 2002
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CGE models; growth; transition economics; international trade; economic integration;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
- O47 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Measurement of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
- P2 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies
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- Orlowski, Lucjan T., 1993. "Indirect transfers in trade among former Soviet Union Republics: Sources, patterns and policy responses in the post-Soviet period," Kiel Working Papers 556, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2004.
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0279, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
- LÃºcio Vinhas De Souza, 2006. "A Wider Europe: Trade Relations Between an Enlarged EU and the Russian Federation," Problems of Economic Transition, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 49(2), pages 6-33, June.
- Irina Tochitskaya & Lúcio Vinhas de Souza, 2009. "Trade relations between an enlarged EU and the Russian Federation, and its effects in Belarus," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(1), pages 1-24, May.
- Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio, 2011. "An Initial Estimation of the Economic Effects of the Creation of the EurAsEC Customs Union on Its Members," World Bank - Economic Premise, The World Bank, issue 47, pages 1-7, January.
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