The Empirical Economic Growth Literature
AbstractThe empirical economic growth literature is criticized for its lack ofrobustness. For different definitions of robustness, conclusions vary from 'almost everycorrelation is fragile' to 'a substantial number of explanatory variables are robust.' Were-analyze the empirical results of the economic growth literature for various alternativedefinitions of robustness using quasi-experiments. The analysis pertains to sign, size andsignificance of the effects, and we relax the quasi-experimental procedure by no longerapplying a set of 'fixed' variables. Response surface analyses of the quasi-experimentsreveal that the number of robust variables is limited, the effects crucially depend on thespecification of conditioning variables, and the default specification based on theconvergence/catch-up model is associated with estimated effects of conditioning variablesthat constitute outliers.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 02-040/3.
Date of creation: 22 Apr 2002
Date of revision: 31 Oct 2003
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economic growth; sensitivity analysis; robustness; response surface.;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
- O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
- O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
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