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The Empirical Economic Growth Literature

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Author Info
Raymond J.G.M. Florax () (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
Henri L.F. de Groot () (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
Reinout Heijungs () (Leiden University)

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Abstract

The empirical economic growth literature is criticized for its lack of robustness. For different definitions of robustness, conclusions vary from 'almost every correlation is fragile' to 'a substantial number of explanatory variables are robust.' We re-analyze the empirical results of the economic growth literature for various alternative definitions of robustness using quasi-experiments. The analysis pertains to sign, size and significance of the effects, and we relax the quasi-experimental procedure by no longer applying a set of 'fixed' variables. Response surface analyses of the quasi-experiments reveal that the number of robust variables is limited, the effects crucially depend on the specification of conditioning variables, and the default specification based on the convergence/catch-up model is associated with estimated effects of conditioning variables that constitute outliers.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 02-040/3.

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Date of creation: 22 Apr 2002
Date of revision: 31 Oct 2003
Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20020040

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl/

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Related research
Keywords: economic growth sensitivity analysis robustness response surface.

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
C90 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - General
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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  1. Östbye, Stein & Westerlund, Olle, 2004. "Productivity convergence across industries and regions in Norway and Sweden," UmeÃ¥ Economic Studies 632, Umeå University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Sergio J. Rey & Boris Dev, 2004. "Sigma-convergence in the presence of spatial effects," Urban/Regional 0404008, EconWPA, revised 22 Apr 2004. [Downloadable!]
  3. Roberto Leon Gonzalez & Daniel Montolio Estivill, 2003. "Growth, Convergence and Public Investment. A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Working Papers in Economics 106, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Bengtsson, Mikael & Berggren, Niclas & Jordahl, Henrik, 2005. "Trust and Growth in the 1990s: A Robustness Analysis," Ratio Working Papers 60, The Ratio Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Sjoerd Beugelsdijk & Henri L.F. de Groot & Anton B.T.M. van Schaik, 2002. "Trust and Economic Growth," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-049/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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