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The Last Word on the Wage Curve?

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Author Info
Peter Nijkamp () (Dept. of Spatial Economics, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vrije Universiteit van Amsterdam)
Jacques Poot () (School of Economics and Finance, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand)

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Abstract

In the last decade we have seen extensive international research on the extent to which wages of individuals respond to changing local labour market conditions. For many countries and periods, an inverse relationship between wages and unemployment rates has been found. Following Blanchflower and Oswald (1990), this relationship is referred to as the wage curve. The elasticity of this wage curve has been reported to be so similar across studies, at a level of about -0.1, that Card (1995) called it an "empirical law of economics". However, there is considerable heterogeneity among wage curve studies. This paper carries out modern meta-analytic techniques on a sample of 208 elasticities derived from the literature to uncover the reasons for the differences in empirical results across studies. It is found that the wage curve is a robust empirical phenomenon, but there is also clear evidence of downward publication bias. In addition, many reported t statistics are biased upwards due to the use of aggregate unemployment rates and other labour market characteristics for groups. A maximum likelihood method and a trimming procedure are used to correct for these biases. Both methods give similar results for our sample. An unbiased estimate of the wage curve elasticity is about -0.07.

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Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 02-029/3.

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Date of creation: 21 Mar 2002
Date of revision: 13 Mar 2003
Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20020029

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Keywords: C12; C13; J31; R23;

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  1. Tommaso Ciarli & André Lorentz & Maria Savona & Marco Valente, 2008. "The Effect of Consumption and Production Structure on Growth and Distribution. A Micro to Macro Model," Papers on Economics and Evolution 2008-13, Max Planck Institute of Economics, Evolutionary Economics Group. [Downloadable!]
  2. Francesco Devicienti & Agata Maida & Lia Pacelli, 2006. "The Italian Wage Curve Resurrected after the 1993 Labor Market Reforms," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 50, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies. [Downloadable!]
  3. Kees Folmer, 2009. "Why do macro wage elasticities diverge?," CPB Discussion Papers 122, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  4. repec:ese:iserwp: is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Kees Folmer, 2009. "Why do macro wage elasticities diverge?," CPB Memoranda 224, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Andreas Ammermueller & Claudio Lucifora & Federica Origo & Thomas Zwick, 2007. "Still Searching for the Wage Curve: Evidence from Germany and Italy," IZA Discussion Papers 2674, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Badi H. Baltagi & Uwe Blien & Katja Wolf, 2008. "New Evidence on the Dynamic Wage Curve for Western Germany: 1980-2004," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 103, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Ammermüller, Andreas & Kuckulenz, Anja & Zwick, Thomas, 2006. "Aggregate Unemployment Decreases Individual Returns to Education," ZEW Discussion Papers 06-34, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2004. "A Meta-Analytic Assessment of the Effect of Immigration on Wages," Population Studies Centre Discussion Papers dp-47, University of Waikato, Population Studies Centre. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Baltagi, Badi H. & Blien, Uwe & Wolf, Katja, 2007. "Phillips Curve or wage curve? : evidence from West Germany: 1980-2004," IAB Discussion Paper 200714, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]. [Downloadable!]
  11. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 2006. "The Wage Curve: An Entry Written for the New Palgrave, 2nd Edition," IZA Discussion Papers 2138, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  12. Marisa Bucheli & Cecilia González, 2007. "An estimation of the wage curve for Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 1107, Department of Economics - dECON. [Downloadable!]
  13. Francesco Devicienti & Agata Maida & Lia Pacelli, 2006. "The Resurrection of the Italian Wage Curve," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 52, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Simonetta Longhi & Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, 2004. "Spatial Heterogeneity and the Wage Curve revisited," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-054/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Michael Landesmann & Hermine Vidovic & Vladimir Gligorov & Robert Stehrer & Anna Iara, 2008. "Western Balkan Countries: Adjustment Capacity to External Shocks, with a Focus on Labour Markets," Research Reports 352, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw. [Downloadable!]
  16. Longhi, Simonetta & Nijkamp, Peter & Reggiani, Aura & Blien, Uwe, 2002. "Forecasting regional labour markets in Germany: an evaluation of the performance of neural network analysis," ERSA conference papers ersa02p117, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
  17. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 2005. "The Wage Curve Reloaded," IZA Discussion Papers 1665, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  18. Blien, Uwe & Sanner, Helge, 2006. "Structural change and regional employment dynamics," IAB Discussion Paper 200606, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]. [Downloadable!]
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  19. Geraint Johnes, 2005. "The wage curve revisited: estimates from a UK panel," Working Papers 003050, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Miquel Clar & Christian Dreger & Raúl Ramos, 2007. "Wage Flexibility and Labour Market Institutions: A Meta-Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 2581, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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