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How Large is Average Economic Growth? Evidence from a Robust Method

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Author Info
H. Peter Boswijk () (University of Amsterdam)
Philip Hans Franses () (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

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Abstract

This paper puts forward a method to estimate average economic growth, and its associated confidence bounds, which does not require a formal decision on potential unit root properties. The method is based on the analysis of either difference-stationary or trend-stationary time series models, implementing the robust bootstrapping procedure advocated in Romano and Wolf (2001). Simulation evidence indicates the practical relevance of the method. It is illustrated on quarterly post-war US industrial production.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 02-002/4.

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Date of creation: 22 Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20020002

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Related research
Keywords: Growth; Unit root; Robust testing;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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  1. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Vogelsang, Timothy J. & Franses, Philip Hans, 2001. "Testing for Common Deterministic Trend Slopes," Working Papers 01-15, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Eugene Canjels & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "Estimating Deterministic Trends In The Presence Of Serially Correlated Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 184-200, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Peter C.B. Phillips & Chin Chin Lee, 1996. "Efficiency Gains from Quasi-Differencing Under Nonstationarity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1134, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  5. Boswijk, Peter, 1993. "On the Formulation of Wald Tests on Long-Run Parameters," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(1), pages 137-44, February.
  6. Romano, Joseph P & Wolf, Michael, 2001. "Subsampling Intervals in Autoregressive Models with Linear Time Trend," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1283-1314, September.
  7. Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "Trend Function Hypothesis Testing in the Presence of Serial Correlation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 123-148, January.
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