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How Large is Average Economic Growth? Evidence from a Robust Method

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  • H. Peter Boswijk

    ()
    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Philip Hans Franses

    ()
    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

This paper puts forward a method to estimate average economic growth, andits associated confidence bounds, which does not require a formal decision onpotential unit root properties. The method is based on the analysis of eitherdifference-stationary or trend-stationary time series models, implementing the robustbootstrapping procedure advocated in Romano and Wolf (2001). Simulation evidence indicatesthe practical relevance of the method. It is illustrated on quarterly post-war USindustrial production.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 02-002/4.

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Date of creation: 22 Jan 2002
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20020002

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

Related research

Keywords: Growth; Unit root; Robust testing;

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  1. Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "Trend Function Hypothesis Testing in the Presence of Serial Correlation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 123-148, January.
  2. Eugene Canjels & Mark W. Watson, 1994. "Estimating deterministic trends in the presence of serially correlated errors," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 94-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. Romano, Joseph P & Wolf, Michael, 2001. "Subsampling Intervals in Autoregressive Models with Linear Time Trend," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1283-1314, September.
  4. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  5. Boswijk, Peter, 1993. "On the Formulation of Wald Tests on Long-Run Parameters," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(1), pages 137-44, February.
  6. Vogelsang, T.J. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2001. "Testing for common deterministic trend slopes," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-16, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  7. Peter C.B. Phillips & Chin Chin Lee, 1996. "Efficiency Gains from Quasi-Differencing Under Nonstationarity," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1134, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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