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Moment Approximation for Least Squares Estimators in Dynamic Regression Models with a Unit Root

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Author Info
Jan F. Kiviet () (University of Amsterdam)
Garry D.A. Phillips (Cardiff Business School, Cardiff, Wales, UK)

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Abstract

Asymptotic expansions are employed in a dynamic regression model with a unit root in order to find approximations for the bias, the variance and for the mean squared error of the least-squares estimator of all coefficients. It is found that in this particular context such expansions exist only when the autoregressive model contains at least one non-redundant exogenous explanatory variable and that local to zero asymptotic approaches are here without avail. Surprisingly the large sample and small disturbance asymptotic techniques give closely related results, which is not the case in stable dynamic regression models. The expressions for moment approximations are specialized to the random walk with (trend in) drift model and their accuracy is examined in Monte Carlo experiments.

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Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 01-118/4.

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Date of creation: 06 Dec 2001
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20010118

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  1. Chevillon, Guillaume, 2007. "Inference in the Presence of Stochastic and Deterministic Trends," ESSEC Working Papers DR 07021, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School. [Downloadable!]
  2. Steve Lawford & Michalis P. Stamatogiannis, 2004. "The Finite-Sample Effects of VAR Dimensions on OLS Bias, OLS Variance, and Minimum MSE Estimators: Purely Nonstationary Case," Public Policy Discussion Papers 04-05, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Allan Timmermann & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Small Sample Properties of Forecasts from Autoregressive Models under Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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