A Bayesian Analysis of the PPP Puzzle using an Unobserved Components Model
AbstractThe failure to describe the time series behaviour of most realexchange rates as temporary deviations from fixedlong-term means may be due to time variation of the equilibriathemselves, see Engel (2000). We implement thisidea using an unobserved components model and decompose theobservations on real exchange rates in long-termcomponents, which capture the time-variation of the mean and inmedium and short-term components whichmeasure temporary deviations. A simulation-based Bayesian analysis isintroduced to compute the posteriordistribution of (functions) of the model parameters. A stationaritytest in this setup indicates that the mean isslowly time-varying. Subsequently, we use our flexible model toderive the implied distributions of some keyfeatures of real exchange rates. Most notably, the half-life ofdeviations from the mean, which is a measure ofpersistence, is lowered. This provides a possible explanation for thePPP puzzle.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 01-105/4.
Date of creation: 20 Nov 2001
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purchasing power parity puzzle; real exchange rate; time-varying mean; Gibbs sampling;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2002-02-10 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2002-02-14 (Econometrics)
- NEP-IFN-2002-02-10 (International Finance)
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