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Risk Perception of Traffic Participants

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Author Info

  • Arianne de Blaeij

    ()
    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Daniel van Vuuren

    ()
    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Abstract

In this paper we study the risk perception of traffic participants. Firstly, we give an overviewof previously used methodologies for the monetary valuation of transport safety. Thesemethodologies do not distinguish between the individual's assessment of probabilities and hervaluation of possible outcomes. A great disadvantage of these approaches is therefore that onehas to make the assumption that people correctly perceive the probabilities. Prospect theorydoes not make this assumption. Our procedure, which is based on this methodology, consistsof three steps. The first step is to determine the certainty equivalent for avoiding roadaccidents. The second step is the elicitation of the utility function. The final step is theelicitation of the probability weighting function. With this information we directly obtain theperceived value of the probability for accident Ai.The first, tentative, results show that the valuation of losses is wellrepresented by a utility function that is concave in shape. Secondly, ourpreliminary results show that when people have to choose whether or not toparticipate in a potentially risky activity with a low probability of the "badoutcome" (say ? 1/100), they base their decision on the possible outcomes ofthe activity rather than on the probabilities involved. The empiricalconclusion is therefore that people base their final decision mainly on thepossible outcomes and not so much on probabilities whenever there are verysmall probabilities involved.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 01-027/3.

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Date of creation: 05 Mar 2001
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20010027

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

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  1. Wiktor Adamowicz & Peter Boxall & Michael Williams & Jordan Louviere, 1998. "Stated Preference Approaches for Measuring Passive Use Values: Choice Experiments and Contingent Valuation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 64-75.
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  7. Adamowicz, Wiktor L. & Boxall, Peter C. & Williams, Michael & Louviere, Jordan, 1995. "Stated Preference Approaches for Measuring Passive Use Values: Choice Experiments versus Contingent Valuation," Staff Paper Series 24126, University of Alberta, Department of Resource Economics and Environmental Sociology.
  8. Viscusi, W Kip, 1991. "Age Variations in Risk Perceptions and Smoking Decisions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 73(4), pages 577-88, November.
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  13. Rietveld, P. & Bruinsma, F. R. & van Vuuren, D. J., 2001. "Coping with unreliability in public transport chains: A case study for Netherlands," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 539-559, July.
  14. Liu, Jin-Tan & Hsieh, Chee-Ruey, 1995. "Risk Perception and Smoking Behavior: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 139-57, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Andy Thorpe & Catherine Robinson, 2004. "When goliaths clash: US and EU differences over the labeling of food products derived from genetically modified organisms," Agriculture and Human Values, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 287-298, January.

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