Stock Selection, Style Rotation, and Risk
AbstractUsing US data from June 1984 to July 1999, we show that the impact of firm-specificcharacteristics like size and book-to-price on future excess stock returns varies considerably overtime. The impact can be either positive or negative at different times. This time variation ispartially predictable. We investigate whether the partial predictability signals security mispricing orrisk compensation by formulating alternative modeling strategies. The strategies are comparedempirically, In particular, we allow for a state-dependent choice of investment styles rather than aonce-and-for-all choice for a particular style, for example based on high book-to-price ratios orsmall market cap values. Using alternative ways to correct for risk, we find significant and robustexcess returns to style rotating investment strategies. Business cycle oriented approaches exhibitthe best overall performance. Purely statistical models for style rotation or fixed investment stylesreveal less robust behavior.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 01-021/2.
Date of creation: 26 Feb 2001
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl
investment style; time-varying parameters; risk compensation; business cycles;
Other versions of this item:
- NEP-ALL-2001-05-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CFN-2001-05-02 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-FIN-2001-05-02 (Finance)
- NEP-FMK-2001-05-02 (Financial Markets)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. " Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-28, September.
- Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1992. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9216, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Phillips, P.C.B., 1991.
"A Shortcut to LAD Estimator Asymptotics,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 450-463, December.
- Josef Lakonishok & Andrei Shleifer & Robert W. Vishny, 1993.
"Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk,"
University of Chicago - George G. Stigler Center for Study of Economy and State
84, Chicago - Center for Study of Economy and State.
- Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June.
- Kent Daniel & Sheridan Titman, 1996.
"Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns,"
NBER Working Papers
5604, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. " Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March.
- G. William Schwert, 1990.
"Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence,"
NBER Working Papers
3296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schwert, G William, 1990. " Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1237-57, September.
- Rosenberg, Barr, 1974. "Extra-Market Components of Covariance in Security Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 263-274, March.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
- La Porta, Rafael, 1996. " Expectations and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1715-42, December.
- Chao, Hsiao-Ying & Collver, Charles & Limthanakom, Natcha, 2012. "Global style momentum," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 319-333.
- Bauer, Rob & Derwall, Jeroen & Molenaar, Roderick, 2004.
"The real-time predictability of the size and value premium in Japan,"
Open Access publications from Maastricht University
urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-19320, Maastricht University.
- Bauer, Rob & Derwall, Jeroen & Molenaar, Roderick, 2004. "The real-time predictability of the size and value premium in Japan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 503-523, November.
- Manuel Ammann & Michael Verhofen, 2006. "The Effect of Market Regimes on Style Allocation," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 309-337, September.
- Georgi Nalbantov & Rob Bauer & Ida Sprinkhuizen-Kuyper, 2006. "Equity style timing using support vector regressions," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(15), pages 1095-1111.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antoine Maartens (+31 626 - 160 892)).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.