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Stock Selection, Style Rotation, and Risk

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Author Info
André Lucas () (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
Ronald van Dijk (ING Investment Management, and Tilburg University)
Teun Kloek () (Erasmus University Rotterdam, and ING Investment Management)

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Abstract

Using US data from June 1984 to July 1999, we show that the impact of firm-specific characteristics like size and book-to-price on future excess stock returns varies considerably over time. The impact can be either positive or negative at different times. This time variation is partially predictable. We investigate whether the partial predictability signals security mispricing or risk compensation by formulating alternative modeling strategies. The strategies are compared empirically, In particular, we allow for a state-dependent choice of investment styles rather than a once-and-for-all choice for a particular style, for example based on high book-to-price ratios or small market cap values. Using alternative ways to correct for risk, we find significant and robust excess returns to style rotating investment strategies. Business cycle oriented approaches exhibit the best overall performance. Purely statistical models for style rotation or fixed investment styles reveal less robust behavior.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 01-021/2.

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Date of creation: 26 Feb 2001
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20010021

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl/

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Related research
Keywords: investment style; time-varying parameters; risk compensation; business cycles;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. " Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. M. Hashem Pesaran & Allan Timmermann, 1995. "Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 95-19, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
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  6. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1992. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9216, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Rosenberg, Barr, 1974. "Extra-Market Components of Covariance in Security Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 263-274, March. [Downloadable!]
  10. La Porta, Rafael, 1996. " Expectations and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1715-42, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Georgi Nalbantov & Rob Bauer & Ida Sprinkhuizen-Kuyper, 2006. "Equity style timing using support vector regressions," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(15), pages 1095-1111, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Manuel Ammann & Michael Verhofen, 2006. "The Effect of Market Regimes on Style Allocation," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 309-337, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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