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Stock Selection, Style Rotation, and Risk

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Author Info
André Lucas () (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
Ronald van Dijk (ING Investment Management, and Tilburg University)
Teun Kloek () (Erasmus University Rotterdam, and ING Investment Management)

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Abstract

Using US data from June 1984 to July 1999, we show that the impact of firm-specific characteristics like size and book-to-price on future excess stock returns varies considerably over time. The impact can be either positive or negative at different times. This time variation is partially predictable. We investigate whether the partial predictability signals security mispricing or risk compensation by formulating alternative modeling strategies. The strategies are compared empirically, In particular, we allow for a state-dependent choice of investment styles rather than a once-and-for-all choice for a particular style, for example based on high book-to-price ratios or small market cap values. Using alternative ways to correct for risk, we find significant and robust excess returns to style rotating investment strategies. Business cycle oriented approaches exhibit the best overall performance. Purely statistical models for style rotation or fixed investment styles reveal less robust behavior.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 01-021/2.

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Date of creation: 26 Feb 2001
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20010021

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Related research
Keywords: investment style time-varying parameters risk compensation business cycles

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  1. Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. " Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-65, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. G. William Schwert, 1990. "Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," NBER Working Papers 3296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. La Porta, Rafael, 1996. " Expectations and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1715-42, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Georgi Nalbantov & Rob Bauer & Ida Sprinkhuizen-Kuyper, 2006. "Equity style timing using support vector regressions," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 16(15), pages 1095-1111, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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