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Consistent Expectations Equilibria and Complex Dynamics in Renewable Resource Markets

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  • Cars H. Hommes

    ()
    (University of Amsterdam)

  • J. Barkley Rosser

    (Jr., James Madison University)

Abstract

Price fluctuations under adaptive learning in renewable resourcemarkets such as fisheries are examined. Optimal fisherymanagement with logistic fish pOpUlation growth implies a backward-bending, discounted supply curve for bioeconomicequilibrium sustained yield. Higher discount rates bend supplybackwards more to generate multiple steady state rationalexpectations equilibria. Under bounded rationality adaptive learningof a linear forecasting rule generates steady state, 2-cycle as weIl as chaotic consistent expectations equilibria (CEE),which are self-fulfilling in sample average andautocorrelations. The possibility of "learning to believe in chaos"is robust and even enhanced by dynamic noise.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 01-013/1.

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Date of creation: 06 Feb 2001
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20010013

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

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Cited by:
  1. Hommes, Cars & Zhu, Mei, 2014. "Behavioral learning equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 778-814.
  2. Antoci, Angelo & Sodini, Mauro, 2009. "Indeterminacy, bifurcations and chaos in an overlapping generations model with negative environmental externalities," MPRA Paper 13750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Gregoir, Stephane & Weill, Pierre-Olivier, 2007. "Restricted perception equilibria and rational expectation equilibrium," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 81-109, January.
  4. Hommes, C.H., 2013. "Behaviorally Rational Expectations and Almost Self-Fulfilling Equilibria," CeNDEF Working Papers 13-17, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  5. Cars Hommes & Mei Zhu, 2013. "Behavioral Learning Equilibria," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-014/II, Tinbergen Institute.
  6. Orlando Gomes, 2009. "The timing of information updates: a stability result," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(4), pages 2860-2869.
  7. Antoci, Angelo & Naimzada, Ahmad & Sodini, Mauro, 2009. "Strategic interactions and heterogeneity in a overlapping generations model with negative environmental externalities," MPRA Paper 18221, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Rosser, J. Jr. & Ahmed, Ehsan & Hartmann, Georg C., 2003. "Volatility via social flaring," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 77-87, January.
  9. Hommes, C.H., 2007. "Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  10. Barkley Rosser, J. Jr., 2001. "Complex ecologic-economic dynamics and environmental policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 23-37, April.
  11. Rosser Jr., J. Barkley, 2010. "Is a transdisciplinary perspective on economic complexity possible?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 3-11, July.
  12. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Interacting cobweb markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 461-481, September.
  13. Colander, David & Rothschild, Casey, 2010. "Sins of the Sons of Samuelson: Vision, pedagogy, and the zig-zag windings of complex dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 277-290, June.

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