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Option Pricing and Foreign Investment under Political Risk

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Author Info
Joseph A. Cherian (Boston University)
Enrico Perotti () (University of Amsterdam)

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Abstract

The paper analyses asset prices in a context of uncertainty over future government policy. As current policy is maintained, perceived risk abates thus leading to a gradual appreciation of asset prices and a gradual decrease in their conditional variance. Option values computed under this process have time series and the term structure of conditional volatility, which, in general, are downward sloping. In price series without a policy reversal, implied volatility from option prices will exceed actual volatility, with this wedge progressively disappearing. This may be viewed as the volatility analogue of the ‘peso premium’ for assets subject to large, infrequent price drops.

This discussion paper has resulted in a publication in the Journal of International Economics, 2001, 55(2), 359-77.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 99-030/2.

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Date of creation: 07 May 1999
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:19990030

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl/

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Related research
Keywords: International asset pricing; Political risk; Option pricing; Implied volatility; Peso premium;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

Cited by:
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  1. Azam, Jean-Paul & Bates, Robert & Biais, Bruno, 2009. "Political Predation and Economic Development," IDEI Working Papers 342, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Mauro Ghinamo & Paolo Panteghini & Federico Revelli, 2007. "FDI Determination and Corporate Tax Competition in a Volatile World," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Pawlina, G. & Kort, P.M., 2001. "Investment under uncertainty and policy change," Discussion Paper 5, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Driessen, Joost & Perotti, Enrico C, 2004. "Confidence Building on Euro Conversion: Theory and Evidence from Currency Options," CEPR Discussion Papers 4180, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bansal, Ravi & Dahlquist, Magnus, 2002. "Expropriation Risk and Return in Global Equity Markets," SIFR Research Report Series 8, Institute for Financial Research. [Downloadable!]
  6. Enrico C. Perotti & Luc Laeven & Pieter van Oijen, 2000. "Confidence Building in Emerging Stock Markets," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 366, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Enrico C. Perotti & Pieter van Oijen, 1999. "Privatization, Political Risk and Stock Market Development in Emerging Economies," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-033/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  8. Josef C. Brada & Ali M. Kutan & Taner M. Yigit, 2004. "The Effects of Transition and Political Instability On Foreign Direct Investment Inflows: Central Europe and the Balkans," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp729, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  9. Paolo Panteghini, 2006. "The Capital Structure of Multinational Companies under Tax Competition," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Perotti, Enrico C & van Oijen, Pieter, 1999. "Privatization, Political Risk and Stock Market Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 2243, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Jan Hendrik Fisch, 2008. "Real call options to enlarge foreign subsidiaries – The moderating effect of irreversibility on the influence of economic volatility and political instability on subsequent FDI," Diskussionsreihe "Global Business Management" 2, University of Augsburg, competence center for global business management. [Downloadable!]
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