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Bayes Estimates of Markov Trends in Possibly Cointegrated Series: An Application to US Consumption and Income Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Richard Paap () (RIBES)
Herman K. van Dijk () (Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam)
Additional information is available for the following
registered author(s):
Stylized facts show that the average growth rates of US per capita consumption and income differ in recession and expansion periods. Since a linear combination of such series does not have to be a constant mean process, standard cointegration analysis between the variables, to examine the permanent income hypothesis, may not be valid. To model the changing growth rates in both series, we introduce a multivariate Markov trend model, which allows for different growth rates in consumption and income during expansions and recessions. The deviations from the multivariate Markov trend are modelled by a vector autoregressive model. Bayes estimates of this model are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The empirical results suggest that there exist a cointegration relation between US per capita disposable income and consumption, after correction for a multivariate Markov trend.
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Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number
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Date of creation: 31 Mar 1999Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:19990024Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl/
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Keywords: multivariate Markov trend ; cointegration ; MCMC ; permanent income hypothesis ; Other versions of this item:
Article Paper Paap, R. & Dijk, H.K. van, 2002.
"Bayes estimates of Markov trends in possibly cointegrated series: an application to US consumption and income ,"
Econometric Institute Report
EI 2002-42 Revision_Date:, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
[Downloadable!] R. Paap & H.K. van Dijk, 1999.
"Bayes estimates of Markov trends in possibly cointegrated series - an application to US consumption and income ,"
Econometric Institute Report
111, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute.
[Downloadable!] This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports :
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references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
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BAUWENS, Luc & BOS, Charles S. & VAN DIJK, Herman K., 1999.
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1999057, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
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L. Bauwens & C.S. Bos & H.K. van Dijk, 1999.
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"Bayesian Inference of General Linear Restrictions on the Cointegration Space ,"
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189, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
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