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Bayes Estimates of Markov Trends in Possibly Cointegrated Series: An Application to US Consumption and Income

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Author Info
Richard Paap () (RIBES)
Herman K. van Dijk () (Econometric Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam)

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Abstract

Stylized facts show that the average growth rates of US per capita consumption and income differ in recession and expansion periods. Since a linear combination of such series does not have to be a constant mean process, standard cointegration analysis between the variables, to examine the permanent income hypothesis, may not be valid. To model the changing growth rates in both series, we introduce a multivariate Markov trend model, which allows for different growth rates in consumption and income during expansions and recessions. The deviations from the multivariate Markov trend are modelled by a vector autoregressive model. Bayes estimates of this model are obtained using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The empirical results suggest that there exist a cointegration relation between US per capita disposable income and consumption, after correction for a multivariate Markov trend.

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Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 99-024/4.

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Date of creation: 31 Mar 1999
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:19990024

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Related research
Keywords: multivariate Markov trend; cointegration; MCMC; permanent income hypothesis;

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  1. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Phillips, Peter C.B. & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 774-808, August. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Peel, D A & Speight, A E H, 1998. "Threshold Nonlinearities in Output: Some International Evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 323-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Albert, James H & Chib, Siddhartha, 1993. "Bayes Inference via Gibbs Sampling of Autoregressive Time Series Subject to Markov Mean and Variance Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, January.
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  7. Kleibergen, Frank & Paap, Richard, 2002. "Priors, posteriors and bayes factors for a Bayesian analysis of cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 223-249, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. repec:cup:etheor:v:10:y:1994:i:3-4:p:552-78 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Zivot, Eric, 1994. "A Bayesian Analysis Of The Unit Root Hypothesis Within An Unobserved Components Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3-4), pages 552-578, August. [Downloadable!]
  10. Campbell, John Y, 1987. "Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? An Alternative Test of the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(6), pages 1249-73, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Peel, D. A., 1992. "Some analysis of the long-run time series properties of consumption and income in the U.K," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-178, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Peter M. Summers & Penelope A. Smith, 2005. "How well do Markov switching models describe actual business cycles? The case of synchronization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 253-274. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Sylvia Kaufmann & Peter Kugler, 2006. "Expected Money Growth, Markov Trends and the Instability of Money Demand in the Euro Area," Working Papers 131, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  3. Cliff L. F. Attfield & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2006. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: new evidence for the US and UK," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 75, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  4. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang, 2004. "Monetary policy in a Markov-switching VECM: implications for the cost of disinflation and the price puzzle," Working Papers 2003-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lennart F. Hoogerheide & Johan F. Kaashoek, 2004. "Functional Approximations to Likelihoods/Posterior Densities: A Neural Network Approach to Efficient Sampling," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 74, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  6. Luc Bauwens & Charles S. Bos & Herman K. van Dijk, 1999. "Adaptive Polar Sampling with an Application to a Bayes Measure of Value-at-Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-082/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Villani, Mattias, 2005. "Bayesian Inference of General Linear Restrictions on the Cointegration Space," Working Paper Series 189, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  8. Richard Kleijn & Herman K. van Dijk, 2006. "Bayes model averaging of cyclical decompositions in economic time series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 191-212. [Downloadable!]
  9. Maximo Camacho, 2002. "Nonlinear stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 274, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  10. H.K. Van Dijk, 2002. "On Bayesian structural inference in a simultaneous equation model," Econometric Institute Report 263, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric Institute. [Downloadable!]
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