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Value at Risk as a Diagnostic Tool for Corporates: The Airline Industry

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Author Info
Winfried Hallerbach (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
Bert Menkveld () (Erasmus University Rotterdam and KLM Schiphol)

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Abstract

In recent years the Value at Risk (VaR) concept for measuring downside risk has been widely studied. VaR basically is a summary statistic that quantifies the exposure of an asset or portfolio to market risk, or the risk that a position declines in value with adverse market price changes. Three parties have been particularly interested: financial institutions, regulators and corporates.
In this paper, we focus on VaR use for corporates. This field is relatively unexplored. We show how VaR can be helpful to study market value risk -- proxied by share price risk. We develop a methodology to decompose the overall VaR into components that are attributable to underlying external risk factors and a residual idiosyncratic component.
Apart from developing theoretical results, we study the airline industry to show what practical results our 'Component VaR framework' can yield. Like any multinational company, an airline faces significant exposures to external risk factors, e.g. commodity prices, interest rates and exchange rates. In our opinion, Component VaR analysis can enrich discussions in the company on financial risk management and shareholder value.

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Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 99-023/2.

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Date of creation: 19 Mar 1999
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:19990023

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Flannery, Mark J & James, Christopher M, 1984. " The Effect of Interest Rate Changes on the Common Stock Returns of Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1141-53, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jorion, Philippe, 1990. "The Exchange-Rate Exposure of U.S. Multinationals," Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(3), pages 331-45, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Sweeney, Richard J & Warga, Arthur D, 1986. "The Possibility of Estimating Risk Premia in Asset Pricing Models," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 21(2), pages 299-308, May.
  4. Jorion, Philippe, 1995. " Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-28, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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