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Testing for a Shift in Trend when Serial Correlation is of Unknown Form

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Author Info
Timothy J. Vogelsang () (Cornell University)

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Abstract

In this paper test statistics are proposed that can be used to test for shifts in the trend function of a univariate time series. The tests are valid in the presence of general forms of serial correlation in the errors and can be used without having to estimate the serial correlation parameters either parametrically or nonparametrically. The tests are valid for both I(0) and I(1) errors. The tests are designed to detect a single break at a known or unknown date. Asymptotic distributions are tabulated. A local asymptotic analysis is used to evaluate the size and power of the tests. Local asymptotic power indicates that the new tests have nontrivial asymptotic power. If the supremum statistic is used when the break date is unknown, one of the new tests has greater power than currently available statistics. Simulations are used to assess the finite sample size and power of the tests. A discussion is given on computing confidence intervals for trend function parameters when there is a trend shift at an unknown date. Such confidence intervals are computed for GNP growth rates of 16 countries using historical data.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 99-016/4.

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Date of creation: 09 Mar 1999
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:19990016

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl/

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  1. Travaglini, Guido, 2008. "Dynamic GMM Estimation With Structural Breaks. An Application to Global Warming and its Causes," MPRA Paper 7108, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
  2. Pierre Perron & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2007. "Testing for Shifts in Trend with an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-025, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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