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A Comparison of Parametric, Semi-nonparametric, Adaptive, and Nonparametric Cointegration Tests

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Author Info
H. Peter Boswijk () (University of Amsterdam)
Andre Lucas () (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
Nick Taylor (University of Manchester)

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Abstract

This paper provides an extensive Monte-Carlo comparison of several contemporary cointegration tests. Apart from the familiar Gaussian based tests of Johansen, we also consider tests based on non-Gaussian quasi-likelihoods. Moreover, we compare the performance of these parametric tests with tests that estimate the score function from the data using either kernel estimation or semi-nonparametric density approximations. The comparison is completed with a fully nonparametric cointegration test. In small samples, the overall performance of the semi-nonparametric approach appears best in terms of size and power. The main cost of the semi-nonparametric approach is the increased computation time. In large samples and for heavily skewed or multimodal distributions, the kernel based adaptive method dominates. For near-Gaussian distributions, however, the semi-nonparametric approach is preferable again.

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Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 99-012/4.

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Date of creation: 18 Feb 1999
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:19990012

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  1. Hodgson, Douglas J., 1998. "Adaptive Estimation Of Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(01), pages 44-69, February. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Boswijk, H. Peter & Lucas, Andr‚, 1997. "Semi-nonparametric cointegration testing," Serie Research Memoranda 0041, Free University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Phillips, Peter C B, 1988. "Regression Theory for Near-Integrated Time Series," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1021-43, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. H. Peter Boswijk & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Distribution Approximations for Cointegration Tests with Stationary Exogenous Regressors," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 99-013/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Franses, Philip Hans & Lucas, Andre, 1998. "Outlier Detection in Cointegration Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 459-68, October.
  6. Gallant, A Ronald & Nychka, Douglas W, 1987. "Semi-nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 363-90, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Kleibergen, Frank & van Dijk, Herman K., 1994. "Direct cointegration testing in error correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 61-103, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Franses, Philip Hans & Kloek, Teun & Lucas, Andre, 1998. "Outlier robust analysis of long-run marketing effects for weekly scanning data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1-2), pages 293-315, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1997. "Reprojecting Partially Observed Systems with Application to Interest Rate Diffusions," Working Papers 97-09, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  10. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Caner, Mehmet, 1998. "Tests for cointegration with infinite variance errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 155-175, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Doornik, Jurgen A, 1998. " Approximations to the Asymptotic Distributions of Cointegration Tests," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(5), pages 573-93, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. André Lucas, 1998. "Inference on cointegrating ranks using lr and lm tests based on pseudo-likelihoods," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 185-214. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Nonparametric cointegration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 379-404, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Charles Manski, 1984. "Adaptive estimation of non-linear regression models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 145-194. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 1997. "The Term Structure Of Forward Exchange Premiums And The Forecastability Of Spot Exchange Rates: Correcting The Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(3), pages 353-361, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Aktham Maghyereh, 2006. "The long-run relationship between stock returns and inflation in developing countries: further evidence from a nonparametric cointegration test," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(4), pages 265-273, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Martin Wagner, 2002. "A Comparison of Johansen's, Bierens and the Subspace Algorithm Method for Cointegration Analysis," Diskussionsschriften dp0210, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Kirstin Hubrich & Helmut Lütkepohl & Pentti Saikkonen, 2001. "A Review Of Systems Cointegration Tests," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 247-318. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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