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Evaluating GARCH Models

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Author Info
Stefan Lundbergh (Stockholm School of Economics)
Timo Teräsvirta () (Stockholm School of Economics)

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Abstract

This paper suggests a unified framework for testing the adequacy of an estimated GARCH model. Nothing more complicated than standard asymptotic theory is required. Parametric tests of no ARCH in standardized errors, symmetry, and parameter constancy are suggested. Estimating the alternative when the null hypothesis is rejected may give useful ideas of how to improve the specification. It is also shown that the recent portmanteau test of Li and Mak (1994) is asymptotically equivalent to our test of no ARCH in the standardized error process.

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Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 99-008/4.

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Date of creation: 18 Feb 1999
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:19990008

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  1. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Calzolari, Giorgio & Panattoni, Lorenzo, 1996. "Analytic Derivatives and the Computation of GARCH Estimates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(4), pages 399-417, July-Aug.. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Sentana, Enrique, 1995. "Quadratic ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 62(4), pages 639-61, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-30, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Tim Bollerslev & Jeffrey Wooldridge, 1992. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 143-172. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Nelson, Daniel B & Cao, Charles Q, 1992. "Inequality Constraints in the Univariate GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(2), pages 229-35, April.
  8. Lundbergh, Stefan & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "Modelling economic high-frequency time series with STAR-STGARCH models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 291, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  9. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  1. Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2006. "Stability of nonlinear AR-GARCH models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 632, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Oscar Reinaldo Becerra Camargo, 2005. "Medidas De Riesgo, Caracteristicas Y Técnicas De Medición: Una Aplicación Del Var Y El Es A La Tasa Interbancaria De Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003198, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Malmsten, Hans & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2004. "Stylized Facts of Financial Time Series and Three Popular Models of Volatility," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 563, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 03 Sep 2004. [Downloadable!]
  4. Pentti Saikkonen & Markku Lanne, 2004. "A Skewed GARCH-in-Mean Model: An Application to U.S. Stock Returns," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 469, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  5. Todd Prono, 2006. "GARCH-based identification of triangular systems with an application to the CAPM: still living with the roll critique," Working Papers 07-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. [Downloadable!]
  6. Malmsten, Hans, 2004. "Evaluating exponential GARCH models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 564, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 03 Sep 2004. [Downloadable!]
  7. Mika Meitz & Pentti Saikkonen, 2008. "Parameter Estimation in Nonlinear AR-GARCH Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/25, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Meitz, Mika & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2004. "Evaluating models of autoregressive conditional duration," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 557, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 13 Dec 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Meitz, Mika & Saikkonen, Pentti, 2004. "Ergodicity, mixing, and existence of moments of a class of Markov models with applications to GARCH and ACD models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 573, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 20 Apr 2007. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Andreea Halunga & Chris D. Orme, 2007. "First order asymptotic theory for parametric misspecification tests of GARCH models," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0721, Economics, The University of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  11. Andeaou, E. & Werker, B.J.M., 2004. "An alternative asymptotic analysis of residual-based statistics," Discussion Paper 56, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  12. Timo Terasvirta, 2004. "A Time Series Model for an Exchange Rate in a Target Zone with Applications," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 340, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Werker, B.J.M. & Andreou, E., 2003. "A simple asymptotic analysis of residual-based statistics," Discussion Paper 118, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
  14. Markku Lanne & Pentti Saikkonen, 2005. "Modeling Conditional Skewness in Stock Returns," Economics Working Papers ECO2005/14, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Robert-Paul Berben & W. Jos Jansen, 2005. "Bond Market and Stock Market Integration in Europe," DNB Working Papers 060, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  16. Juan Carlos Escanciano, 2006. "Joint Diagnostic Tests for Conditional Mean and Variance Specifications," Faculty Working Papers 02/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra. [Downloadable!]
  17. Takayuki Shiohama, 2006. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of the Change Point for Semiparametric GARCH models," Discussion Paper Series a471, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. [Downloadable!]
  18. Amado, Cristina & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2008. "Modelling Conditional and Unconditional Heteroskedasticity with Smoothly Time-Varying Structure," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 691, Stockholm School of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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