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A Hybrid Joint Moment Ratio Test for Financial Time Series

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Author Info
Patrick A. Groenendijk () (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
André Lucas () (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
Casper G. de Vries () (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

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Abstract

We advocate the use of absolute moment ratio statistics in conjunction with standard variance ratio statistics in order to disentangle linear dependence, non-linear dependence, and leptokurtosis in financial time series. Both statistics are computed for multiple return horizons simultaneously, and the results are presented in a comprehensive way using a graphical device. We construct a formal joint testing procedure based on bootstrapped and block-bootstrapped uniform confidence intervals. The methodology is hybrid because it combines a formal testing procedure with volatility curve pattern recognition based on expert opinions. An application to forex data illustrates the procedure.

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Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 98-104/2.

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Date of creation: 28 Sep 1998
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:19980104

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References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Muller, Ulrich A. & Dacorogna, Michel M. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V. & Schwarz, Matthias & Morgenegg, Claude, 1990. "Statistical study of foreign exchange rates, empirical evidence of a price change scaling law, and intraday analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 1189-1208, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Chow, K. Victor & Denning, Karen C., 1993. "A simple multiple variance ratio test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 385-401, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1987. "Are Output Fluctuations Transitory?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 857-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Faust, Jon, 1992. "When Are Variance Ratio Tests for Serial Dependence Optimal?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(5), pages 1215-26, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fong, Wai Mun & Koh, Seng Kee & Ouliaris, Sam, 1997. "Joint Variance-Ratio Tests of the Martingale Hypothesis for Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 51-59, January.
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  10. Richardson, Matthew & Stock, James H., 1989. "Drawing inferences from statistics based on multiyear asset returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 323-348, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Richard B. Olsen & Ulrich A. Müller & Michel M. Dacorogna & Olivier V. Pictet & Rakhal R. Davé & Dominique M. Guillaume, 1997. "From the bird's eye to the microscope: A survey of new stylized facts of the intra-daily foreign exchange markets (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 95-129. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Richardson, Matthew, 1993. "Temporary Components of Stock Prices: A Skeptic's View," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 199-207, April.
  15. Andrew W. Lo, A. Craig MacKinlay, 1988. "Stock Market Prices do not Follow Random Walks: Evidence from a Simple Specification Test," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 41-66. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Liu, Christina Y & He, Jia, 1991. " A Variance-Ratio Test of Random Walks in Foreign Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 773-85, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Cochrane, John H, 1988. "How Big Is the Random Walk in GNP?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(5), pages 893-920, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Groenendijk, Patrick A. & Lucas, Andr‚ & Vries, Casper G. de, 1997. "Stochastic processes, non-normal innovations, and the use of scaling ratios," Serie Research Memoranda 0058, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
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  1. T. Di Matteo & T. Aste & Michel M. Dacorogna, 2004. "Using the Scaling Analysis to Characterize Financial Markets," Finance 0402014, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  2. T. Di Matteo & T. Aste & Michel M. Dacorogna, 2005. "Long-term memories of developed and emerging markets: Using the scaling analysis to characterize their stage of development," Econometrics 0503004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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