Thomas de Graaff (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) Raymond J.G.M. Florax (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) Peter Nijkamp () (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam) Aura Reggiani (University of Bologna)
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There is an increasing awareness of the potential of nonlinear modeling in regional science, which can partly be explained by the recognition of the limitations of conventional equilibrium models in complex situations and partly by the easy availability and accessibility of sophisticated computational techniques. Among the class of nonlinear models chaos theory stands out as an interesting approach, in which notable progress has been made in economic research. However, the operational significance – in terms of solid empirical tests on chaos – has still been rather limited and a rigorous statistical-econometric treatment of chaos phenomena is still lacking. This paper is concerned with a methodological and empirical analysis of chaos in spatial systems. It seeks to break new research ground by linking the classical diagnostic tools developed in spatial econometrics to nonlinearity tests for empirical data series, in particular the so-called BDS (Brock, Dechert, Scheinkman) test. A spatial variant of the BDS test is developed, and subsequently applied in the context of a shift-share model for Dutch regional labor markets.
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Find related papers by JEL classification: C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics R12 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography) R23 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
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