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Commercial Policy Uncertainty, the Expected Cost of Protection, and Market Access

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  • Joseph F. Francois

    ()
    (Erasmus University Rotterdam and CEPR)

  • Will Martin

    (World Bank)

Abstract

Protection unconstrained by rules often varies substantially over time. Rules-based disciplines likeOECD industrial tariff bindings negotiated under GATT since 1947 and new Uruguay Roundbindings on agricultural and services trade and on developing country industrial tariffs, constrain thisvariability. We examine the theoretical effects of such constraints on the expected cost of protectionand offer a formalization of the concept of "market access," emphasizing both the first and secondmoments of the distribution of protection. As an illustration, we provide a stylized examination ofUruguay Round agricultural bindings.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 98-059/2.

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Date of creation: 04 Jun 1998
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:19980059

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

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  1. Kym Anderson, 1978. "On Why Rates Of Assistance Differ Between Australia'S Rural Industries," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 22(2-3), pages 99-114, 08-12.
  2. Barari, Mahua & Lapan, Harvey E., 1993. "Stochastic Trade Policy with Asset Markets: The Role of Tariff Structure," Staff General Research Papers 10042, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  3. Douglas R. Nelson, 1994. "The Political-Economy of U.S. Automobile Protection," NBER Working Papers 4746, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Trefler, Daniel, 1993. "Trade Liberalization and the Theory of Endogenous Protection: An Econometric Study of U.S. Import Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 101(1), pages 138-60, February.
  5. Mundlak, Yair & Larson, Donald F, 1992. "On the Transmission of World Agricultural Prices," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 399-422, September.
  6. Feinberg, Robert M. & Hirsch, Barry T., 1989. "Industry rent seeking and the filing of unfair trade complaints," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 325-340.
  7. Pomery, John, 1984. "Uncertainty in trade models," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 419-465 Elsevier.
  8. Maskus, Keith E & Konan, Denise Eby, 1997. "Trade Liberalization in Egypt," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(3), pages 275-93, October.
  9. Falvey, Rodney E & Lloyd, P J, 1991. "Uncertainty and the Choice of Protective Instrument," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 43(3), pages 463-78, July.
  10. Anderson, James E & Neary, J Peter, 1992. "Trade Reform with Quotas, Partial Rent Retention, and Tariffs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(1), pages 57-76, January.
  11. Gardner, Bruce L, 1987. "Causes of U.S. Farm Commodity Programs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(2), pages 290-310, April.
  12. Bardsley, Peter & Cashin, Paul, 1990. "Underwriting Assistance To The Australian Wheat Industry - An Application Of Option Pricing Theory," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 34(03), December.
  13. Anderson, Kym, 1980. "The Political Market for Government Assistance to Australian Manufacturing Industries," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 56(153), pages 132-44, June.
  14. Francois Joseph F & Wignaraja Ganeshan, 2008. "Economic Implications of Asian Integration," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-48, September.
  15. Rodrik, Dani, 1994. "What does the Political Economy Literature on Trade Policy (Not) Tell Us That We Ought to Know?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1039, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Feinberg, Robert M, 1989. "Exchange Rates and "Unfair Trade."," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 704-07, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Mattoo, Aaditya & Olarreaga, Marcelo, 2001. "Should Credit be Given for Autonomous Liberalization in Multilateral Trade Negotiations?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2821, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Francois, Joseph F. & Martin, Will, 2004. "Commercial policy variability, bindings, and market access," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 665-679, June.
  3. Anderson, Kym, 2000. "Agriculture, Developing Countries, And The WTO Millennium Round," CEPR Discussion Papers 2437, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Bernard Hoekman & Will Martín, 1999. "Some Market Access Issues for Developing Countries in a Millennium Round: Results from Recent World Bank Research," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 36(109), pages 947-978.

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