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Structural Stability Tests with Unknown Breakpoint for the Efficient Method of Moments with Application to Stochastic Volatility Models

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Author Info
Pieter J. van der Sluis (University of Amsterdam)

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Abstract

Tests for structural stability with unknown breakpoint are derived for and applied to the efficient method of moments. Three types of tests are discerned: Wald type tests, Predictive tests and Hansen type tests. The Hansen type test for structural stability with unknown breakpoint is a novelty for moment based techniques. Therefore for this test asymptotic and local power results are provided. It turns out this test has the same asymptotic distribution as the Hall and Sen test. All these tests are applied to an asymmetric stochastic volatility model for a series of daily observations of the S\&P 500 index over the years 1963-1993. Our results indicate that the asymmetric stochastic volatility models fails all stability tests. The supremum type tests give an estimate of the breakpoint in first half of 1970. However the model seems to become more stable as time proceeds.

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Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 98-055/4.

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Date of creation: 20 May 1998
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:19980055

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hall, Alastair R & Sen, Amit, 1999. "Structural Stability Testing in Models Estimated by Generalized Method of Moments," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(3), pages 335-48, July.
  2. Ghysels, Eric & Hall, Alastair, 1990. "A Test for Structural Stability of Euler Conditions Parameters Estimated via the Generalized Method of Moments Estimator," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(2), pages 355-64, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Tauchen, George E. & Harold Zhang & Ming Liu, 1995. "Volume, Volatility and Leverage: A Dynamic Analysis," Working Papers 95-02, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  6. Smith, A A, Jr, 1993. "Estimating Nonlinear Time-Series Models Using Simulated Vector Autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S63-84, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Pieter J. Van Der Sluis, 1998. "Computationally attractive stability tests for the efficient method of moments," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 1(Conferenc), pages C203-C227.
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  8. Sowell, Fallaw, 1996. "Optimal Tests for Parameter Instability in the Generalized Method of Moments Framework," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1085-1107, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Neil Shephard, 2005. "Stochastic Volatility," Economics Papers 2005-W17, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford. [Downloadable!]
  10. Victor Fenton & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1996. "Qualitative and Asymptotic Performance of SNP Density Estimators," Working Papers 96-17, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  11. Ghysels, E. & Guay, A. & Hall, A., 1995. "Predictive Tests for Structural Change with Unknown Breakpoint," Cahiers de recherche 9524, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
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  12. Gallant, A. Ronald & Tauchen, George, 1996. "Which Moments to Match?," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(04), pages 657-681, October. [Downloadable!]
  13. K. Newey, Whitney, 1985. "Generalized method of moments specification testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 229-256, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Tauchen, George & Zhang, Harold & Liu, Ming, 1996. "Volume, volatility, and leverage: A dynamic analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 177-208, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lee, Inpyo & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "Optimal changepoint tests for normal linear regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 9-38, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Fallaw Sowell, . "Tests for Violations of Moment Conditions," GSIA Working Papers 21, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business. [Downloadable!]
  17. Gallant, A Ronald & Nychka, Douglas W, 1987. "Semi-nonparametric Maximum Likelihood Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 363-90, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Ghysels, Eric & Hall, Alastair, 1990. "Are consumption-based intertemporal capital asset pricing models structural?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 121-139. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Gourieroux, C & Monfort, A & Renault, E, 1993. "Indirect Inference," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(S), pages S85-118, Suppl. De. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 297., Boston College Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  21. Bansal, Ravi & Gallant, A. Ronald & Hussey, Robert & Tauchen, George, 1995. "Nonparametric estimation of structural models for high-frequency currency market data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 251-287. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Ghysels, E. & Harvey, A. & Renault, E., 1996. "Stochastic Volatility," Cahiers de recherche 9613, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques. [Downloadable!]
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  23. Fenton, Victor M. & Gallant, A. Ronald, 1996. "Qualitative and asymptotic performance of SNP density estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 77-118, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  24. Hoffman, Dennis L & Pagan, Adrian R, 1989. "Post-Sample Prediction Tests for Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 51(3), pages 333-43, August.
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  25. repec:cup:etheor:v:12:y:1996:i:4:p:657-81 is not listed on IDEAS
  26. Harvey, Andrew C & Shephard, Neil, 1996. "Estimation of an Asymmetric Stochastic Volatility Model for Asset Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(4), pages 429-34, October.
  27. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eric Ghysels & Alain Guay, 2001. "Testing for Structural Change in the Presence of Auxiliary Models," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 133, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal. [Downloadable!]
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