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Long Horizon Predictability of Exchange Rate: Is it for Real?

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Author Info
Jan J.J. Groen (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

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Abstract

This paper reexamines recent results on the predictability of nominal exchange rate returns by means of fundamental models. Using a monthly sample of the post-Bretton Woods period we show that the in- sample fit between long-horizon exchange rate returns and various models is not significant if we correct for the persistence that is caused by overlapping data and spurious regression phenomena. The long horizon out-of-sample predictive power of the fundamental exchange rate models is found to be very weak. This is especially the case when we conduct the out-of-sample forecasting tests for a longer time span than that of earlier papers.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 97-095/2.

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Date of creation: 24 Sep 1997
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:19970095

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  1. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. [Downloadable!]
  2. J.J.J. Groen, 2001. "(EURO) Exchange Rate Predictability and Monetary Fundamentals in a Small Multi-Country Panel," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 664, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jan J J Groen & Ravi Balakrishnan, . "Asset price based estimates of sterling exchange rate risk premia," Bank of England working papers 250, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," International Finance Discussion Papers 779, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  5. Westerlund, Joakim & Basher, Syed A., 2006. "Can Panel Data Really Improve the Predictability of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model?," MPRA Paper 1229, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 2002-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Jan J J Groen & Clare Lombardelli, . "Real exchange rates and the relative prices of non-traded and traded goods: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 223, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
  8. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2008. "Forecasting Exchange Rates with a Large Bayesian VAR," CEPR Discussion Papers 7008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Phornchanok Cumperayot, 2003. "Dusting off the Perception of Risk and Returns in FOREX Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
  10. Nelson Mark & Donggyu Sul, 1998. "Norminal Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: Evidence from a Small Post-Bretton Woods Panel," Working Papers 98-19, Ohio State University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Guy Meredith, 2003. "Medium-Term Exchange Rate Forecasting: What Can We Expect?," IMF Working Papers 03/21, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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