Interaction between Supply and Demand Shocks in Production and Employment
AbstractA major aim of recent empirical modelling of the business cycle isto identify the relative importance of aggregate supply and demandshocks. Supply or technology shocks are associated with permanent(structural) effects on economic activity whereas demand shocks arerelated to temporary (cyclical) effects. Most studies in this veinuse multivariate VAR-models or the common trends-cointegrationapproach in order to disentangle supply and demand shocks. As analternative, this paper uses the methodology of unobserved (orstructural) components time series models as set out in Harvey(1989) for identification of technology and demand shocks in atwo equation system of labour produc-tivity and industrial output.The novelty is the introduction of correlation between the twotypes of shocks such that the mutual dependency of these shockscan be estimated explicitly. This is because tech-nology shockswill have cyclical (temporary) effects, and demand shocks willhave structural (permanent) effects, which are not fully describedby the interaction of the endogenous variables in the model. Theestimation procedure is set out in Koopman et al. (1995). The datais quarterly time series of labour productivity and industrialoutput for Germany, The Netherlands, the United Kingdom and theUnited States. Our results show that the covariance of the dynamicsof supply and demand shocks appears to be important in thesecountries. It indicates a good coordination is needed betweenstructural and cyclical policies.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 97-052/3.
Date of creation: 30 May 1997
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1996.
"The Computational Experiment: An Econometric Tool,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 69-85, Winter.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1994. "The computational experiment: an econometric tool," Staff Report 178, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1994. "The computational experiment: an econometric tool," Working Paper 9420, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Pierre Danthine, Jean & Donaldson, John B., 1993.
"Methodological and empirical issues in real business cycle theory,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-35, January.
- Jean-Pierre DANTHINE & John B. DONALDSON, 1991. "Methodological and Empirical Issues in Real Business Cycle Theory," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du DÃ©partement d'EconomÃ©trie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9102, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- Danthine, J.P. & Donaldson, J.B., 1991. "Methodological and Empirical Issues in Real Business Cycle Theory," Papers fb-_91-11, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Steven J. Davis & John C. Haltiwanger & Scott Schuh, 1998. "Job Creation and Destruction," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262540932, June.
- Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991.
"Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Bergman, Michael, 1996. "International evidence on the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1237-1258, June.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances,"
NBER Working Papers
2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- den Butter, F. A. G. & Wollmer, F. J., 1996.
"An empirical model for endogenous technology in the Netherlands,"
Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 15-40, January.
- Butter, F.A.G. den & Wollmer, F.J., 1992. "An empirical model for endogenous technology in the Netherlands," Serie Research Memoranda 0037, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- Ingram, B.F. & Kocherlakota, N.R. & Savin, N.E., 1992.
"Explaining Business Cycles : A Multiple Shock Approach,"
92-09, University of Iowa, Department of Economics.
- Ingram, Beth Fisher & Kocherlakota, Narayana R. & Savin, N. E., 1994. "Explaining business cycles: A multiple-shock approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 415-428, December.
- Mortensen, Dale T & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1994.
"Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 397-415, July.
- Dale T. Mortensen & Christopher A. Pissarides, 1993. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," CEP Discussion Papers dp0110, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-94, Oct.-Dec..
- Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1993.
"Labor Hoarding and the Business Cycle,"
NBER Working Papers
3556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990.
"Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations,"
Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics
24, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1992. "Current Real-Business-Cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(3), pages 430-50, June.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "Current real business cycle theories and aggregate labor market fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982.
"Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations,"
Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Web interface for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4a, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Finn E. Kydland & Edward C. Prescott, 1982. "Executable program for "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations"," QM&RBC Codes 4, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antoine Maartens (+31 626 - 160 892)).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.