European Freight Transport Analysis using Neural Networks and Logit Models
AbstractThe present paper aims to analyse interregional freight transport movements in Europe in order to forecast spatio-temporal patterns of new transport economic scenarios.In view of the high dimension of our data-base on transport flows, two different approaches are compared, viz. the logit model and the neural network model. Logit models are well-known in the literature; however, applications of logit analysis to large samples are more rare. Neural networks are nowadays receiving a considerable attention as a new approach that is able to capture major patterns of flows, on the basis of fuzzy and incomplete information. Inthis context an assessment of this method on the basis of a large amount of data is an interesting research endeavour.The paper will essentially deal with a research experiment, oriented towards both calibration/learning procedures and spatial forecasting, in order to compare the two above methodologies as well as to investigate the potential/limitations of the two above mentioned different, but related assessment methods. The first results in this framework highlight the factthat the two models adopted, although methodologically different, are both able to provide a reasonable spatial mapping of the interregional transport flows under consideration.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 97-032/3.
Date of creation: 01 Mar 1997
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- Schumacher, Martin & Ro[ss]ner, Reinhard & Vach, Werner, 1996. "Neural networks and logistic regression: Part I," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 661-682, June.
- Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp & Enrico Sabella, 1998. "Evolutionary algorithms: Overview and applications to European transport," ERSA conference papers ersa98p412, European Regional Science Association.
- Reggiani, Aura & Nijkamp, Peter & Tsang, Wai-Fai, 1997. "Neural network and spatial interaction analysis of European commodity flows," Serie Research Memoranda 0068, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- Reggiani, Aura & Nijkamp, Peter & Nobilio, Lucia, 1997. "Spatial modal patterns in European freight transport networks: results of neurocomputing and logit models," Serie Research Memoranda 0029, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- Aura Reggiani & Peter Nijkamp & Simona Bolis, 1997. "The Role of Transalpine Freight Transport in a Common European Market: Analyses and Empirical Applications," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 97-065/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- Nijkamp, Peter & Reggiani, Aura & Bolis, Simona, 1997. "European freight transport and the environment: empirical applications and scenarios," Serie Research Memoranda 0033, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
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