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Bolivian Social Investment Fund Analysis of Baseline Data for Impact Evaluation


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  • Menno Pradhan

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Laura Rawlings

    (The World Bank)

  • Geert Ridder

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)


On the basis of the baseline data collected for the evaluation of the Bolivian Social Investment Fund (SIF) this paper assesses (1) the benefit incidence of the SIF and (2) the quality of the evaluation design. We find that the benefits in education are most equally distributed over the population, the investments in health and sanitation favor those relatively well off. For the education component of the SIF, control groups of schools which will not receive benefits have been included in the survey. In one region theseschools where selected on the basis of matched comparison on the basis of observed characteristics, in the other region by means of randomization. We compare control and treatment groups and conclude there is a systematic bias in favor of treatment schools in the first region. We propose to use instrumental variables to control for the non-random selection. With the pre-intervention data we can test whether an instrument is valid. We find that among several candidates the number of NGOs (non governmental organizations)in the community is a valid instrument. Next, we investigate the possible loss of efficiency in the estimate of the impact due to the non experimental control group design.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 97-024/4.

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Date of creation: 15 Feb 1997
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:19970024

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  1. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-75, March.
  2. Heckman, J.J. & Hotz, V.J., 1988. "Choosing Among Alternative Nonexperimental Methods For Estimating The Impact Of Social Programs: The Case Of Manpower Training," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center, Chicago - Economics Research Center 88-12, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
  3. Ashenfelter, Orley C, 1978. "Estimating the Effect of Training Programs on Earnings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(1), pages 47-57, February.
  4. repec:fth:prinin:251 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. LaLonde, Robert J, 1986. "Evaluating the Econometric Evaluations of Training Programs with Experimental Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 604-20, September.
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Cited by:
  1. César P. Bouillon & Luis Tejerina, 2006. "Do We Know What Works?: A Systematic Review of Impact Evaluations of Social Programs in Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications 80443, Inter-American Development Bank.


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