Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Variation in the Slope Coefficient of the Fama Regression for Testing Uncovered Interest Rate Parity: Evidence from Fixed and Time-varying Coefficient Approaches

Contents:

Author Info

  • Camiel de Koning

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Stefan Straetmans

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

We investigate the potential presence of time variation in the coefficients of the ''Fama regression'' for Uncovered InterestRate Parity. We implement coefficient constancy tests, rolling regression techniques, and stochastic coefficient modelsbased on state space modelling. Among six major US bilateral exchange rates we find significant evidence for stochastictime variation.Using the statistical equivalence between stochastically varying coefficients and conditional heteroscedasticity we derivea proxy for time-varying 'risk', and investigate whether it explains the well known "negative bias" or "foreign discount biaspuzzle" in the foreign exchange rate literature. We contrast our identification scheme to the ARCH-in-mean approach forempirically identifying risk premia.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://papers.tinbergen.nl/97014.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 97-014/2.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 30 Jan 1997
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:19970014

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

Related research

Keywords: Uncovered interest parity; time-varying coefficients; state space modelling;

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Giovannini, Alberto & Jorion, Philippe, 1989. " The Time Variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 307-25, June.
  2. Charles Engel & Anthony P. Rodrigues, 1987. "Tests of International CAPM with Time-Varying Covariances," NBER Working Papers 2303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. P.A.V.B. Swamy & George S. Tavlas, 1993. "Random coefficient models: theory and applications," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 93-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Cutler, David M & Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1991. "Speculative Dynamics," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(3), pages 529-46, May.
  5. Chiang, Thomas C, 1988. "The Forward Rate as a Predictor of the Future Spot Rate--A Stochastic Coefficient Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(2), pages 212-32, May.
  6. Charles Engel, 1995. "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5312, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "A multivariate generalized ARCH approach to modeling risk premia in forward foreign exchange rate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 309-324, September.
  8. Nijman, T.E. & Palm, F.C. & Wolff, C.C.P., 1991. "Premia in forward foreign exchange as unobserved components," Discussion Paper 1991-12, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  9. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  10. Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S., 1985. "Conditional variance and the risk premium in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 47-66, August.
  11. Diebold, Francis X & Nerlove, Marc, 1989. "The Dynamics of Exchange Rate Volatility: A Multivariate Latent Factor Arch Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, Jan.-Mar..
  12. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J., 1993. "On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 115-138, April.
  13. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-459, May.
  14. P.A.V.B. Swamy & Garry J. Schinasi, 1986. "Should fixed coefficients be reestimated every period for extrapolation?," International Finance Discussion Papers 287, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  15. Ralph Tryon, 1979. "Testing for rational expectations in foreign exchange markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 139, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  16. Jeffrey Frankel and Kenneth Froot., 1991. "Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market," Economics Working Papers 91-158, University of California at Berkeley.
  17. Fama, Eugene F., 1984. "Forward and spot exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 319-338, November.
  18. Nijman, Theo E & Palm, Franz C & Wolff, Christian C P, 1993. "Premia in Forward Foreign Exchange as Unobserved Components: A Note," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(3), pages 361-65, July.
  19. Cooley, Thomas F & Prescott, Edward C, 1976. "Estimation in the Presence of Stochastic Parameter Variation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(1), pages 167-84, January.
  20. Mark, Nelson C., 1988. "Time-varying betas and risk premia in the pricing of forward foreign exchange contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 335-354, December.
  21. Lewis, Karen K, 1989. "Changing Beliefs and Systematic Rational Forecast Errors with Evidence from Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 621-36, September.
  22. Froot, Kenneth A & Thaler, Richard H, 1990. "Foreign Exchange," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 179-92, Summer.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Tony Cavoli & Ramkishen S. Rajan, 2005. "THE CAPITAL INFLOWS PROBLEM IN SELECTED ASIAN ECONOMIES IN THE 1990s REVISITED : THE ROLE OF MONETARY STERILIZATION," Finance Working Papers 22562, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:19970014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antoine Maartens (+31 626 - 160 892)).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.