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Factors influencing the Composition of the Urban Transport System in the Year 2030 - A Panel Analysis of Experts' Opinions


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  • Cees Gorter

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Sytze A. Rienstra

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

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    The future sustainability of the urban transport system is largely determined by the technological composition of and measures introduced in the system. This composition is dependent on many background factors. This paper investigates this relationship by means of a panel analysis of experts' opinions on developments of background factors and scores attached to the importance of transport modes in the year 2030; in addition, the model also includes personal features of the respondents. The main findings are that: a reversal of the individualization has a negative impact on several types of modes, which may be explained by a lower mobility level; the main decision level influences the importance of new and collective transport modes and the urban spatial organization has also a clear impact on the importance of collective modes. It is concluded that when governments wish to reduce the external costs of urban transport, developments in society, the spatial organization and the institutional environment - as well as general policies, other than transport oriented but influencing these developments - have to be taken into account by composing urban transport policy packages.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 96-181/5.

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    Date of creation: 02 Jan 1997
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    Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:19960181

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    1. Verhoef, Erik, 1994. "External effects and social costs of road transport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 273-287, July.
    2. G. S. Maddala, 1987. "Limited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 22(3), pages 307-338.
    3. Verhoef Erik T., 1997. "Externalities," Serie Research Memoranda 0031, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    4. Nijkamp, Peter & Rienstra, Sytze A, 1995. "Private Sector Involvement in Financing and Operating Transport Infrastructure," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 221-35, May.
    5. Gwilliam, Kenneth M. & Geerlings, Harry, 1994. "New technologies and their potential to reduce the environmental impact of transportation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 307-319, July.
    6. Rienstra, S.A. & Vleugel, J.M. & Nijkamp, P., 1995. "Options for sustainable passenger transport: an assessment of policy choices," Serie Research Memoranda 0006, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    7. Nijkamp, Peter & Rienstra, Sytze A., 1995. "Sustainable transport in a compact city," Serie Research Memoranda 0042, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
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