Factors influencing the Composition of the Urban Transport System in the Year 2030 - A Panel Analysis of Experts' Opinions
AbstractThe future sustainability of the urban transport system is largely determined by the technological composition of and measures introduced in the system. This composition is dependent on many background factors. This paper investigates this relationship by means of a panel analysis of experts' opinions on developments of background factors and scores attached to the importance of transport modes in the year 2030; in addition, the model also includes personal features of the respondents. The main findings are that: a reversal of the individualization has a negative impact on several types of modes, which may be explained by a lower mobility level; the main decision level influences the importance of new and collective transport modes and the urban spatial organization has also a clear impact on the importance of collective modes. It is concluded that when governments wish to reduce the external costs of urban transport, developments in society, the spatial organization and the institutional environment - as well as general policies, other than transport oriented but influencing these developments - have to be taken into account by composing urban transport policy packages.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 96-181/5.
Date of creation: 02 Jan 1997
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Verhoef, Erik, 1994. "External effects and social costs of road transport," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 273-287, July.
- G. S. Maddala, 1987. "Limited Dependent Variable Models Using Panel Data," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 22(3), pages 307-338.
- Verhoef Erik T., 1997.
Serie Research Memoranda
0031, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- Nijkamp, Peter & Rienstra, Sytze A, 1995. "Private Sector Involvement in Financing and Operating Transport Infrastructure," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 221-35, May.
- Gwilliam, Kenneth M. & Geerlings, Harry, 1994. "New technologies and their potential to reduce the environmental impact of transportation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 307-319, July.
- Rienstra, S.A. & Vleugel, J.M. & Nijkamp, P., 1995. "Options for sustainable passenger transport: an assessment of policy choices," Serie Research Memoranda 0006, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
- Nijkamp, Peter & Rienstra, Sytze A., 1995. "Sustainable transport in a compact city," Serie Research Memoranda 0042, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antoine Maartens (+31 626 - 160 892)).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.