The Impact of the Credit Crisis on Poor Developing Countries and the Role of China in Pulling and Crowding Us Out
AbstractWe show that the credit crisis of OECD countries has a negative impact on the growth of the world economy according to an error correction model including China and Australia. This causes negative growth effects in poor developing countries. The reduced growth has a direct or indirect impact on the convergence issue, aid, remittances, labour force growth, investment and savings, net foreign debt, migration, tax revenues, public expenditure on education and literacy. We estimate dynamic equations of all these variables using dynamic panel data methods for a panel of countries with per capita income below $1200 (2000). The estimated equations are then integrated to a dynamic system of thirteen equations for thirteen variables that allows for highly non-linear baseline simulations for these open economies. Then we analyze the effects of transitional shocks as predicted by the international organizations for the OECD and world growth for 2008 and 2009. Whereas growth rates return to the baseline scenario until 2013 with overshooting for China and Australia, the level of the GDP per capita shows permanent effects, which are positive only for China. In the poor countries, investment, remittances, savings, tax revenues, public expenditure on education, all as a share of GDP as well as literacy and the GDP per capita, are reduced compared to the baseline until 2087 where our analysis ends. Investment, emigration and labour force growth start returning to baseline values between 2013 and 2017. GDP per capita and tax revenues start returning to baseline around 2040. Education variables do not return to baseline without additional effort. Significantly positive short-run effects (the lagged growth rates) show that China has an impact on Australia, which has an impact on the OECD, which in turn affects the rest of the world. ROW has a significantly positive feedback effect on China.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by United Nations University, Maastricht Economic and social Research and training centre on Innovation and Technology in its series UNU-MERIT Working Paper Series with number 004.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.merit.unu.edu
crisis; migration; remittances; accumulation; developing countries; economic growth.;
Other versions of this item:
- Ziesemer, Thomas, 2010. "The Impact of the Credit Crisis on Poor Developing Countries and the Role of China in Pulling and Crowding Us Out," MERIT Working Papers 004, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
- F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
- F24 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Remittances
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- O15 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
- J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Rapoport, Hillel & Docquier, Frederic, 2006.
"The Economics of Migrants' Remittances,"
Handbook on the Economics of Giving, Reciprocity and Altruism,
- Mutz,Christine & Ziesemer,Thomas, 2005.
"Simultaneous Estimation of Income and Price Elasticities of Export Demand, Scale Economies and Total Factor Productivity Growth for Brazil,"
004, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
- Christine Mutz & Thomas Ziesemer, 2008. "Simultaneous estimation of income and price elasticities of export demand, scale economies and total factor productivity growth for Brazil," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(22), pages 2921-2937.
- Mutz,Christine & Ziesemer,Thomas, 2005. "Simultaneous Estimation of Income and Price Elasticities of Export Demand, Scale Economies and Total Factor Productivity Growth for Brazil," Research Memoranda 004, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology.
- Miguel D. Ramirez & Hari Sharma, 2009.
"Remittances and Growth in Latin America: A Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Analysis,"
Estudios Economicos de Desarrollo Internacional,
Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
- Ramirez, Miguel D. & Sharma, Hari, 2008. "Remittances and Growth in Latin America: A Panel Unit Root and Panel Cointegration Analysis," Working Papers 51, Yale University, Department of Economics.
- Hineline, David R., 2008. "Parameter heterogeneity in growth regressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(2), pages 126-129, November.
- Simeon Djankov & José Garcia Montalvo & Marta Reynal-Querol, 2005.
"The curse of aid,"
257, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Niimi, Yoko & Ozden, Caglar, 2006. "Migration and remittances : causes and linkages," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4087, The World Bank.
- repec:idb:brikps:publication-detail,7101.html?id=25235 is not listed on IDEAS
- Francisco Rodríguez, 2006. "Cleaning Up the Kitchen Sink: On the Consequences of the Linearity Assumption for Cross-Country Growth Empirics," IDB Publications 47218, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Marianna Belloc & Giancarlo Gandolfo, 2005. "The Current Account - Interest Rate Relation as a Nonlinear Phenomenon," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 145-166.
- Stark, Oded & Bloom, David E, 1985. "The New Economics of Labor Migration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 173-78, May.
- M Arellano & O Bover, 1990.
"Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models,"
CEP Discussion Papers
dp0007, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
- Krishna Mazumdar, 2005. "Socio-economic factors determining adult literacy in developing countries," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(1/2), pages 98-120, January.
- Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 2000.
"What Drives Private Saving Across the World?,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 165-181, May.
- Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Luis Servén, 1999. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 47, Central Bank of Chile.
- Loayza, N. & Schmidt, K. & Serven, L., 1999. "What Drives Private Saving Across the World?," Papers 47, Cambridge - Risk, Information & Quantity Signals.
- El-Sakka, M. I. T. & McNabb, Robert, 1999. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Emigrant Remittances," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1493-1502, August.
- Hatton, Timothy J & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2002. "Out of Africa? Using the Past to Project African Emigration Pressure in the Future," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 556-73, August.
- Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2006.
"Aid Effectiveness on Accumulation: A Meta Study,"
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(2), pages 227-254, 05.
- Adams, Richard Jr. & Page, John, 2005. "Do international migration and remittances reduce poverty in developing countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1645-1669, October.
- Carlos Vargas-Silva & Peng Huang, 2005.
"Macroeconomic Determinants of Workers’ Remittances: Host vs. Home Country’s Economic Conditions,"
0507007, EconWPA, revised 29 Jul 2005.
- Carlos Vargas-Silva & Peng Huang, 2006. "Macroeconomic determinantsof workers' remittances: Hostversus home country's economic conditions," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 81-99.
- Nakamura, Alice & Nakamura, Masao, 1998. "Model specification and endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 213-237.
- Rob Vos & Marco V. Sánchez, 2009. "Impact of the global crisis on the achievement of the MDGs in Latin America," Working Papers 74, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
- Freund, Caroline & Spatafora, Nikola, 2005. "Remittances : transaction costs, determinants, and informal flows," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3704, The World Bank.
- Carlos Vargas-Silva, 2007. "Measuring the macroeconomic impact of workers' remittances in a data-rich environment," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(6), pages 359-363.
- Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
- Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
- Samir Jahjah & Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp, 2003.
"Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development,"
IMF Working Papers
03/189, International Monetary Fund.
- Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp & Samir Jahjah, 2005. "Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 55-81, April.
- Bertoli Simone, 2006. "Remittances and the Dynamics of Human Capitalin the Recipient Country," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 200607, University of Turin.
- Dilek Cinar & Frédéric Docquier, 2004. "Brain drain and Remittances: implications for the source country," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 47(1), pages 103-118.
- Mayda, Anna Maria, 2007.
"International Migration: A Panel Data Analysis of the Determinants of Bilateral Flows,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6289, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Anna Mayda, 2010. "International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1249-1274, September.
- Anna Maria Mayda, 2007. "International migration: A panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0707, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
- Orazio P. Attanasio & Lucio Picci & Antonello E. Scorcu, 2000. "Saving, Growth, and Investment: A Macroeconomic Analysis Using a Panel of Countries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 182-211, May.
- repec:ner:ucllon:http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/15278/ is not listed on IDEAS
- Peter Pedroni, 1999.
"Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
- Pedroni, Peter, 1999. " Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-70, Special I.
- Boone, Peter, 1996. "Politics and the effectiveness of foreign aid," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 289-329, February.
- Bardhan, Pranab K & Lewis, Sydney, 1970.
"Models of Growth with Imported Inputs,"
London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 37(148), pages 373-85, November.
- Dalia Hakura & Ralph Chami & Peter Montiel, 2009. "Remittances: An Automatic Output Stabilizer?," IMF Working Papers 09/91, International Monetary Fund.
- Adams, Richard H. Jr., 2007.
"International remittances and the household : analysis and review of global evidence,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
4116, The World Bank.
- Richard H. Adams, 2006. "International Remittances and the Household: Analysis and Review of Global Evidence," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 15(2), pages 396-425, December.
- Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
- Timmer, Marcel P. & Szirmai, Adam, 2000. "Productivity growth in Asian manufacturing: the structural bonus hypothesis examined," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 371-392, December.
- Todaro, Michael P, 1969. "A Model for Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 138-48, March.
- Marta Ruiz-Arranz & Paola Giuliano, 2005.
"Remittances, Financial Development, and Growth,"
IMF Working Papers
05/234, International Monetary Fund.
- Naude, Wim, 2009. "The Financial Crisis of 2008 and the Developing Countries," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Faini, Riccardo & Venturini, Alessandra, 1994. "Migration and Growth: The Experience of Southern Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Dan-Olof Rooth, 2007. "Implicit Discrimination in Hiring â€“ Real World Evidence," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0705, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
- Kao, Chihwa, 1999. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-44, May.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ad Notten).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.