We derive the central differential equation of the neoclassical growth model for the case of a CES (constant elasticity of substitution) production function with perfect capital movement in terms of the debt/GDP ratio and estimate it in several ways for the United States and in a later step the whole model. Debt data are derived from the accumulation of differences between investment and savings. The result is that at least since 1960 the US debt/GDP ratio follows the pattern of a stable differential equation, which will lead to a long-run debtor position. The debt/GDP ratio will approach a value between 50% and 60% (depending on the specification used) unless a structural break increases the world interest rates or, similarly, US spreads reduce the US demand for foreign debt. A value of 50% will be achieved around 2040. We also find short-run deviations from this long-run path, which are characterized by non-sustainable explosive debt growth. These phases are characterized by high interest rates and followed by devaluations of the dollar. Our simple method allows detecting such phases early on by way of testing a stability condition rather than working with arbitrary threshold levels. The estimation of the whole model yields an elasticity of substitution for capital and labour of .155 with autocorrelation correction (and 1/3 without), a growth rate of labour-augmenting technical change of 1.65% (1.5%) and a corresponding initial level of labour productivity as of 1959 of about 350 (320). As a complement to the growth model we estimate the Kouri model using time-varying coefficients obtaining a forecast of the debt/GDP ratio of about 57% for 2050 as for the growth model. As the rest of the world is catching up with the USA in terms of wealth this is a long-run version of Bernanke's savings glut idea.
Download Info
To download:
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the
proper application to
view it first. Information about this may be contained
in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read
the IDEAS help
file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS
site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Publisher Info
Paper provided by United Nations University, Maastricht Economic and social Research and training centre on Innovation and Technology in its series UNU-MERIT Working Paper Series with number
003.
Find related papers by JEL classification: F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies O19 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations O40 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General O51 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - U.S.; Canada
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Aart Kraay & Norman Loayza & Luis Servén & Jaume Ventura, 2000.
"Country portfolios,"
Economics Working Papers
913, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
[Downloadable!]
Aart Kraay & Norman Loayza & Luis Serven & Jaume Ventura, 2000.
"Country Portfolios,"
NBER Working Papers
7795, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)