This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Biased Probability Judgment: Representative Evidence for Pervasiveness and Economic Outcomes

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Dohmen Thomas
Falk Armin
Huffman David
Marklein Felix
Sunde Uwe (ROA rm)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Many economic decisions involve a substantial amount of uncertainty, andtherefore crucially depend on how individuals process probabilistic information. Inthis paper, we investigate the capability for probability judgment in a representativesample of the German population. Our results show that almost a third of therespondents exhibits systematically biased perceptions of probability. The findingsalso indicate that the observed biases are related to observed outcomes, whichindicates the policy relevance of our findings.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://edocs.ub.unimaas.nl/loader/file.asp?id=1354
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Maastricht : ROA, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market in its series Research Memoranda with number 008.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dgr:umaror:2008008

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://edocs.ub.unimaas.nl/

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Willy Villevoye).

Related research
Keywords: education; training and the labour market;

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Robin Hogarth, 2004. "The Challenge of Representative Design in Psychology and Economics," Economics Working Papers 751, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2005. [Downloadable!]
  3. B. Douglas Bernheim & Antonio Rangel, 2005. "Behavioral Public Economics: Welfare and Policy Analysis with Non-Standard Decision-Makers," NBER Working Papers 11518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Grether, David M, 1980. "Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 537-57, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Charles T. Clotfelter & Philip J. Cook, 1991. "The "Gambler's Fallacy" in Lottery Play," NBER Working Papers 3769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Robin Hogarth, 2005. "The challenge of representative design in psychology and economics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 253-263, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Rachel Croson & James Sundali, 2005. "The Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand: Empirical Data from Casinos," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 195-209, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Marianne Bertrand & Sendhil Mullainathan & Eldar Shafir, 2004. "A Behavioral-Economics View of Poverty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 419-423, May. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You can include your works in the database easily by uploading them on the Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA) if you do not have access to an institutional RePEc archive.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.