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Epistemic Democracy with Defensible Premises

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  • Dietrich Franz
  • Spiekermann Kai

    (METEOR)

Abstract

The contemporary theory of epistemic democracy often draws on the Condorcet Jury Theorem to formally justify the `wisdom of crowds''. But this theorem is inapplicable in its current form, since one of its premises---voter independence---is notoriously violated. This premise carries responsibility for the theorem''s misleading conclusion that ''large crowds are infallible''. We prove a more useful jury theorem: under defensible premises, ''large crowds are fallible but better than small groups''. This theorem rehabilitates the importance of deliberation and education, which appear inessential in the classical jury framework.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization in its series Research Memoranda with number 066.

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Date of creation: 2010
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:umamet:2010066

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Web page: http://www.maastrichtuniversity.nl/web/UMPublications.htm

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Keywords: mathematical economics;

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  1. Dietrich, Franz & List, Christian, 2004. "A model of jury decisions where all jurors have the same evidence," Open Access publications from Maastricht University urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-15422, Maastricht University.
  2. Christian List, 2005. "The probability of inconsistencies in complex collective decisions," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 3-32, 05.
  3. redakce, 2012. "n/a," Ekonomika a Management, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2012(1), pages 72-73.
  4. Serguei Kaniovski, 2010. "Aggregation of correlated votes and Condorcet’s Jury Theorem," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 453-468, September.
  5. Dietrich, Franz, 2008. "The Premises of Condorcet's Jury Theorem Are Not Simultaneously Justified," Research Memoranda 012, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization.
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Cited by:
  1. Marcus Pivato, 2013. "Voting rules as statistical estimators," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 581-630, February.
  2. Dietrich, Franz & Spiekermann, Kai, 2012. "Independent opinions? on the causal foundations of belief formation and jury theorems," MPRA Paper 40137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2010.

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