Epistemic Democracy with Defensible Premises
AbstractThe contemporary theory of epistemic democracy often draws on the Condorcet Jury Theorem to formally justify the `wisdom of crowds''. But this theorem is inapplicable in its current form, since one of its premises---voter independence---is notoriously violated. This premise carries responsibility for the theorem''s misleading conclusion that ''large crowds are infallible''. We prove a more useful jury theorem: under defensible premises, ''large crowds are fallible but better than small groups''. This theorem rehabilitates the importance of deliberation and education, which appear inessential in the classical jury framework.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization in its series Research Memoranda with number 066.
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.maastrichtuniversity.nl/web/UMPublications.htm
Other versions of this item:
- D71 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Social Choice; Clubs; Committees; Associations
- D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
- C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
- D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-12-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-CDM-2010-12-23 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-HPE-2010-12-23 (History & Philosophy of Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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- Dietrich, Franz, 2008. "The Premises of Condorcet's Jury Theorem Are Not Simultaneously Justified," Research Memoranda 012, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization.
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2002-W23, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
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- Christian List & Franz Dietrich, 2002. "A Model of Jury Decisions Where All Jurors Have The Same Evidence," Economics Series Working Papers 2002-W23, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Serguei Kaniovski, 2010. "Aggregation of correlated votes and Condorcet’s Jury Theorem," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 453-468, September.
- Pivato, Marcus, 2011.
"Voting rules as statistical estimators,"
30292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dietrich, Franz & Spiekermann, Kai, 2012. "Independent opinions? on the causal foundations of belief formation and jury theorems," MPRA Paper 40137, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2010.
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