Bayesian Group Belief
AbstractIf a group is modelled as a single Bayesian agent, what should its beliefs be? I propose an axiomatic model that connects group beliefs to beliefs of group members, who are themselves modelled as Bayesian agents, possibly with different priors and different information. Group beliefs are proven to take a simple multiplicative form if people''s information is independent, and a more complex form if information overlaps arbitrarily. This shows that group beliefs can incorporate all information spread over the individuals without the individuals having to communicate their (possibly complex and hard-to-describe) private information; communicating prior and posterior beliefs suffices.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization in its series Research Memoranda with number 046.
Date of creation: 2008
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Other versions of this item:
- NEP-ALL-2008-12-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-12-14 (Central Banking)
- NEP-CDM-2008-12-14 (Collective Decision-Making)
- NEP-CTA-2008-12-14 (Contract Theory & Applications)
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- Franz Dietrich, 2004. "Opinion Pooling under Asymmetric Information," Public Economics 0407002, EconWPA.
- Mongin Philippe, 1995.
"Consistent Bayesian Aggregation,"
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Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 313-351, August.
- Pivato, Marcus, 2008. "The Discursive Dilemma and Probabilistic Judgement Aggregation," MPRA Paper 8412, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dietrich, Franz & List, Christian, 2007. "Opinion pooling on general agendas," Research Memoranda 038, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization.
- Dietrich, Franz & List, Christian & Bradley, Richard, 2012. "A Joint Characterization of Belief Revision Rules," MPRA Paper 41240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Dietrich, Franz & List, Christian, 2008. "The aggregation of propositional attitudes: towards a general theory," Research Memoranda 047, Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization.
- Aurélien Baillon & Laure Cabantous & Peter Wakker, 2012. "Aggregating imprecise or conflicting beliefs: An experimental investigation using modern ambiguity theories," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 115-147, April.
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