Aggregating causal judgements
AbstractDecision making typically requires judgements about causal relations. We need to know both the causal effects of our actions and the causal relevance of various environmental factors. Judgements about the nature and strength of causal relations often differ, even among experts. How to handle such diversity is the topic of this paper. First we consider the possibility of aggregating causal judgements via the aggregation of probabilistic ones. The broadly negative outcome of this investigation leads us to look at aggregating causal judgements independently of probabilistic ones. We do so by transcribing causal claims into the judgement aggregation framework and applying some recent results in this field. Finally we look at the implications for probability aggregation when it is constrained by prior aggregation of causal judgements.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization in its series Research Memoranda with number 001.
Date of creation: 2007
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Web page: http://www.maastrichtuniversity.nl/web/UMPublications.htm
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-03-17 (All new papers)
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- Dietrich, Franz, 2006. "Judgment aggregation: (im)possibility theorems," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 286-298, January.
- Christian List, 2002.
"A Model of Path-Dependence in Decisions over Multiple Propositions,"
Economics Series Working Papers
2002-W15, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Christian List, 2002. "A Model of Path-Dependence in Decisions over Multiple Propositions," Economics Papers 2002-W15, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Franz Dietrich & Christian List, 2005. "The impossibility of unbiased judgment aggregation (updated version)," Public Economics 0510001, EconWPA, revised 31 Oct 2005.
- List, Christian & Pettit, Philip, 2002. "Aggregating Sets of Judgments: An Impossibility Result," Economics and Philosophy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(01), pages 89-110, April.
- repec:ner:maastr:urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-15418 is not listed on IDEAS
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