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Testing for Parameter Stability in Dynamic Models across Frequencies

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Author Info
Candelon,Bertrand
Cubadda,Gianluca (METEOR)

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Abstract

This paper contributes to the econometric literature on structural breaks by proposing a test for parameter stability in VAR models at a particular frequency 'omega', where 'omega is an element of [0, pi]'.When a dynamic model is affected by a structural break, the new tests allow for detecting which frequencies of the data are responsible for parameter instability. If the model is locally stable at the frequencies of interest, the whole sample size can be then exploited despite the presence of a break. Two empirical examples illustrate that local instability can concern only the lower frequencies (decrease in the postwar U.S. productivity) or higher frequencies(change in the U.S. monetary policy in the early 80's).

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Paper provided by Maastricht : METEOR, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization in its series Research Memoranda with number 022.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:umamet:2005022

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Keywords: econometrics;

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  1. Arturo Estrella & Anthony P. Rodrigues & Sebastian Schich, 2000. "How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve? evidence from Germany and the United States," Staff Reports 113, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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  2. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  4. Lawrence J. Christiano & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2001. "Maximum likelihood in the frequency domain: the importance of time-to-plan," Working Paper 0106, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Candelon, Bertrand & Lutkepohl, Helmut, 2001. "On the reliability of Chow-type tests for parameter constancy in multivariate dynamic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 155-160, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. " The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Centoni, Marco & Cubadda, Gianluca, 2003. "Measuring the business cycle effects of permanent and transitory shocks in cointegrated time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 45-51, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2005. "Estimating and testing structural changes in multivariate regressions," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-012, Boston University - Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Michael Dotsey, 1998. "The predictive content of the interest rate term spread for future economic growth," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 31-51. [Downloadable!]
  10. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2003. "Structural changes in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 261-295, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Cubadda, Gianluca, 2001. " Complex Reduced Rank Models for Seasonally Cointegrated Time Series," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(4), pages 497-511, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Bai, Jushan & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1998. "Testing for and Dating Common Breaks in Multivariate Time Series," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 65(3), pages 395-432, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
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  16. Breitung, Jorg & Candelon, Bertrand, 2006. "Testing for short- and long-run causality: A frequency-domain approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 363-378, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Plosser, Charles I. & Geert Rouwenhorst, K., 1994. "International term structures and real economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 133-155, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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