How to Sow and Reap as You Go: a Simple Model of Cyclical Endogenous Growth
AbstractIn this paper, we present a simple endogenous growth model that allows for the occurrence of innovations that can develop into General Purpose Technologies (GPTs), which are the result of basic R&D. The model incorporates the main features of the Romer (1990) model and the Aghion and Howitt (1992) model by using multi-level Ethier functions on the one hand, and Poisson processes to describe the arrival of innovations produced by performing basic R&D and applied R&D. Through basic R&D the core of a potentially new GPT enters the economic system. This core offers the possibility for further expansion of the potential GPT through applied R&D by adding peripherals to this core. The characteristics of the new potential GPT that is represented by the core are randomly distributed. These characteristics include intrinsic profitability, scope for expansion, as well as R&D opportunities and efficiency of the corresponding applied R&D process. By using some illustrative simulations with the model, we show that the arrival of a successful GPT does indeed bring about a reallocation of R&D activities towards applied R&D, thus postponing the moment of arrival of the next GPT. Meanwhile, applied R&D raises the productivity of the GPT as a whole. But the profitability of finding the next/marginal peripheral falls in the process. This fall in marginal profits diminishes the incentives to engage in further applied R&D and increases the incentives to move into basic R&D activities again. Thus, we obtain a cyclical pattern in output growth that is not only partly driven by the arrival of the new potential GPTs but also by the continuing development of existing GPTs in the absence of the arrival of new ones. In periods that do not give rise to the arrival of new successful GPTs we find instances of alternating expansions of existing GPTs that have the character of a GPT-race.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology in its series Research Memoranda with number 029.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.maastrichtuniversity.nl/web/UMPublications.htm
economic development an growth ;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-12-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-DEV-2003-12-14 (Development)
- NEP-DGE-2003-12-14 (Dynamic General Equilibrium)
- NEP-MAC-2003-12-14 (Macroeconomics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Segerstrom, Paul S & Anant, T C A & Dinopoulos, Elias, 1990. "A Schumpeterian Model of the Product Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 1077-91, December.
- Jovanovic, Boyan & Rob, Rafael, 1990.
"Long Waves and Short Waves: Growth through Intensive and Extensive Search,"
Econometric Society, vol. 58(6), pages 1391-1409, November.
- Jovanovic, Boyan & Rob, Rafael, 1987. "Long Waves and Short Waves: Growth Through Intensive and Extensive Search," Working Papers 87-35, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Boyan Jovanovic & Rafael Rob, 1990. "Long Waves and Short Waves: Growth Through Intensive and Extensive Search," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2082, David K. Levine.
- Romer, Paul M, 1990.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages S71-102, October.
- David, Paul A, 1990. "The Dynamo and the Computer: An Historical Perspective on the Modern Productivity Paradox," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 355-61, May.
- Robert J. Gordon, 2000.
"Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 49-74, Fall.
- Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," NBER Working Papers 7833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gordon, Robert J, 2000. "Does the 'New Economy' Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2607, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philippe Aghion & Peter Howitt, 1990.
"A Model of Growth Through Creative Destruction,"
NBER Working Papers
3223, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1990. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," DELTA Working Papers 90-12, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," Working papers 527, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Aghion, P. & Howitt, P., 1989. "A Model Of Growth Through Creative Destruction," UWO Department of Economics Working Papers 8904, University of Western Ontario, Department of Economics.
- Helpman, Elhanan & Trajtenberg, Manuel, 1994.
"A Time to Sow and a Time to Reap: Growth Based on General Purpose Technologies,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1080, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Elhanan Helpman & Manuel Trajtenberg, 1994. "A Time to Sow and a Time to Reap: Growth Based on General Purpose Technologies," NBER Working Papers 4854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olsson, Ola, 2001. "Why Does Technology Advance in Cycles?," Working Papers in Economics 38, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
- Dosi, Giovanni, 1988. "Sources, Procedures, and Microeconomic Effects of Innovation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 1120-71, September.
- Trajtenberg, M. & Bresnahan, T.F., 1992.
"General Purpose Technologies: "Engines of Growth","
16-92, Tel Aviv.
- Ethier, Wilfred J, 1982. "National and International Returns to Scale in the Modern Theory of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 389-405, June.
- Kenneth Carlaw & Richard Lipsey, 2011. "Sustained endogenous growth driven by structured and evolving general purpose technologies," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 563-593, October.
- Daniel Schiess & Roger Wehrli, 2011. "Long-Term Growth Driven by a Sequence of General Purpose Technologies," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 11/148, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
- Uwe Cantner & Simone Vannuccini, 2012. "A New View of General Purpose Technologies," Jena Economic Research Papers 2012-054, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena, Max-Planck-Institute of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Charles Bollen).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.