A Percolation Model of Innovation in Complex Technology
AbstractInnovations are known to arrive more highly clustered than if they werepurely random, and their rate of arrival has been increasing nearlyexponentially for several centuries. Their distribution of importance ishighly skewed and appears to obey a power law or lognormal distribution.Technological change has been seen by many scholars as followingtechnological trajectories and being subject to ‘paradigm’ shifts fromtime to time. To address these empirical observations, we introduce acomplex technology space based on percolation theory. This space issearched randomly in local neighborhoods of the current best-practicefrontier. Numerical simulations demonstrate that with increasing radiusof search, the probability of becoming deadlocked declines and the meanrate of innovation increases until a plateau is reached. Thedistribution of innovation sizes is highly skewed and heavy tailed. Forpercolation probabilities near the critical value, it seems to resemblean infinite-variance Pareto distribution in the tails. For highervalues, the lognormal appears to be preferred.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology in its series Research Memoranda with number 032.
Date of creation: 2002
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.maastrichtuniversity.nl/web/UMPublications.htm
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nelson, Richard R. & Winter, Sidney G., 1977.
"In search of useful theory of innovation,"
Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 36-76, January.
- Scherer, F. M. & Harhoff, Dietmar, 2000. "Technology policy for a world of skew-distributed outcomes," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(4-5), pages 559-566, April.
- Goldenberg, J & Libai, B & Solomon, S & Jan, N & Stauffer, D, 2000. "Marketing percolation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 335-347.
- Gerald Silverberg & Bart Verspagen, 2003.
"Breaking the waves: a Poisson regression approach to Schumpeterian clustering of basic innovations,"
Cambridge Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 671-693, September.
- B. Verspagen & G. Silverberg, 2000. "Breaking the waves: a poisson regression approach to schumpeterian clustering of basic innovations," Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS) working paper series 00.16, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS).
- Silverberg,Gerald & Verspagen,Bart, 2000. "Breaking the Waves: A Poisson Regression Approach to Schumpeterian Clustering of Basic Innovations," Research Memoranda 026, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology.
- Silverberg, Gerald & Verspagen, Bart, 2003. "Breaking the waves: a Poisson regression approach to Schumpeterian clustering of basic innovations," Open Access publications from Maastricht University urn:nbn:nl:ui:27-18026, Maastricht University.
- Dietmar Harhoff & Francis Narin & F. M. Scherer & Katrin Vopel, 1999. "Citation Frequency And The Value Of Patented Inventions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(3), pages 511-515, August.
- Silverberg, Gerald & Lehnert, Doris, 1993. "Long waves and 'evolutionary chaos' in a simple Schumpeterian model of embodied technical change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 9-37, June.
- Vega-Redondo, F., 1990.
"Technological Change and Path Dependence: A Co-Evolutionary Model on a Directed Graph,"
UFAE and IAE Working Papers
145.90, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
- Vega-Redondo, Fernando, 1994. "Technological Change and Path Dependence: A Co-evolutionary Model on a Directed Graph," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 59-80, March.
- F. M. Scherer, 1998. "The Size Distribution of Profits from Innovation," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 49-50, pages 495-516.
- William D. Nordhaus, 2001. "The Progress of Computing," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1324, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- F. M. Scherer & Dietmar Harhoff & J, rg Kukies, 2000. "Uncertainty and the size distribution of rewards from innovation," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 175-200.
- Silverberg,Gerald, 2003. "Long Waves: Conceptual, Empirical and Modelling Issues," Research Memoranda 015, Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Charles Bollen).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.