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Mutual Illusions and Financing New Technologies: Two-Sided Informational Cascades

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Author Info
Sanditov,Bulat
Cowan,Robin
Kool,Clemens (MERIT)

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Abstract

A model in which agents on both sides of the market are subject to informational cascades isexamined. In an uncertain environment with asymmetric information agents tend to beoveroptimistic about the state of the world, a result that fits with empirical evidence on financingnew technologies. This overoptimism based on mutual illusions makes the system vulnerable totwo-sided bubbles, and may be one of the reasons behind “dot com” crash.

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Paper provided by Maastricht : MERIT, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology in its series Research Memoranda with number 007.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:umamer:2002007

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Keywords: economics of technology ;

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  1. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1998. "Learning from the Behavior of Others: Conformity, Fads, and Informational Cascades," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 151-70, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Welch, Ivo, 1992. " Sequential Sales, Learning, and Cascades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 695-732, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Anderson, Lisa R & Holt, Charles A, 1997. "Information Cascades in the Laboratory," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 847-62, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Busenitz, Lowell W. & Barney, Jay B., 1997. "Differences between entrepreneurs and managers in large organizations: Biases and heuristics in strategic decision-making," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 9-30, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-31, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Avery, Christopher & Zemsky, Peter, 1998. "Multidimensional Uncertainty and Herd Behavior in Financial Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 724-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Akerlof, George A, 1980. "A Theory of Social Custom, of Which Unemployment May be One Consequence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 749-75, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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