Breaking the waves: a poisson regression approach to schumpeterian clustering of basic innovations
AbstractThe Schumpeterian theory of long waves has given rise to an intense debate on the existenceof clusters of basic innovations. Silverberg and Lehnert have criticized the empirical part ofthis literature on several methodological accounts. In this paper, we propose the methodologyof Poisson regression as a logical way to incorporate this criticism. We construct a new timeseries for basic innovations (based on previously used time series), and use this to test thehypothesis that basic innovations cluster in time. We define the concept of clustering invarious precise ways before undertaking the statistical tests. The evidence we find onlysupports the âweakestâ of our clustering hypotheses, i.e., that the data display overdispersion.We thus conclude that the authors who have argued that a long wave in economic life isdriven by clusters of basic innovations have stretched the statistical evidence too far.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS) in its series Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS) working paper series with number 00.16.
Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://ecis.ieis.tue.nl/
Other versions of this item:
- Gerald Silverberg & Bart Verspagen, 2003. "Breaking the waves: a Poisson regression approach to Schumpeterian clustering of basic innovations," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(5), pages 671-693, September.
- B. Verspagen & G. Silverberg, 2000. "Breaking the waves: a poisson regression approach to schumpeterian clustering of basic innovations," Working Papers 00.16, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies.
- Silverberg,Gerald & Verspagen,Bart, 2000. "Breaking the Waves: A Poisson Regression Approach to Schumpeterian Clustering of Basic Innovations," Research Memorandum 026, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Cincera, Michele, 1997. "Patents, R&D, and Technological Spillovers at the Firm Level: Some Evidence from Econometric Count Models for Panel Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 265-80, May-June.
- Chris Freeman & Luc Soete, 1997. "The Economics of Industrial Innovation, 3rd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262061953, December.
- Solomou, Solomos, 1986. "Innovation Clusters and Kondratieff Long Waves in Economic Growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 101-12, June.
- Kleinknecht, Alfred, 1990. "Are There Schumpeterian Waves of Innovations?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 81-92, March.
- Gordon, Robert J, 2000.
"Does the 'New Economy' Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2607, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 49-74, Fall.
- Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," NBER Working Papers 7833, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Silverberg, Gerald & Lehnert, Doris, 1993. "Long waves and 'evolutionary chaos' in a simple Schumpeterian model of embodied technical change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 9-37, June.
- Jerry A. Hausman & Bronwyn H. Hall & Zvi Griliches, 1984.
"Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hausman, Jerry & Hall, Bronwyn H & Griliches, Zvi, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(4), pages 909-38, July.
- Raa, T. ten & Wolff, E.N., 2000.
"Engines of Growth in the U.S. Economy,"
2000-77, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- Crepon, Bruno & Duguet, Emmanuel, 1997. "Estimating the Innovation Function from Patent Numbers: GMM on Count Panel Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 243-63, May-June.
- Crepon, B. & Duguet, E., 1995.
"Research and Development, Competition and Innovation; Pseudo Maximum Likelihood and Simulated Maximum Likelihood Methods Applied to Count Data Models with Heterogeneity,"
Papiers d'Economie MathÃÂ©matique et Applications
95.08, UniversitÃ© PanthÃ©on-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
- Crepon, Bruno & Duguet, Emmanuel, 1997. "Research and development, competition and innovation pseudo-maximum likelihood and simulated maximum likelihood methods applied to count data models with heterogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 355-378, August.
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page. reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Access and download statisticsgeneral information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Carolina Castaldi).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.