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Breaking the waves: a poisson regression approach to schumpeterian clustering of basic innovations

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  • B. Verspagen

    (ECIS, Eindhoven University of Technology)

  • G. Silverberg

    (MERIT - Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology,)

Abstract

The Schumpeterian theory of long waves has given rise to an intense debate on the existenceof clusters of basic innovations. Silverberg and Lehnert have criticized the empirical part ofthis literature on several methodological accounts. In this paper, we propose the methodologyof Poisson regression as a logical way to incorporate this criticism. We construct a new timeseries for basic innovations (based on previously used time series), and use this to test thehypothesis that basic innovations cluster in time. We define the concept of clustering invarious precise ways before undertaking the statistical tests. The evidence we find onlysupports the ‘weakest’ of our clustering hypotheses, i.e., that the data display overdispersion.We thus conclude that the authors who have argued that a long wave in economic life isdriven by clusters of basic innovations have stretched the statistical evidence too far.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS) in its series Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies (ECIS) working paper series with number 00.16.

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Date of creation: 2000
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:tuecis:0016

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Web page: http://ecis.ieis.tue.nl/

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  1. Cincera, Michele, 1997. "Patents, R&D, and Technological Spillovers at the Firm Level: Some Evidence from Econometric Count Models for Panel Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 265-80, May-June.
  2. Chris Freeman & Luc Soete, 1997. "The Economics of Industrial Innovation, 3rd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262061953, December.
  3. Solomou, Solomos, 1986. "Innovation Clusters and Kondratieff Long Waves in Economic Growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(2), pages 101-12, June.
  4. Kleinknecht, Alfred, 1990. "Are There Schumpeterian Waves of Innovations?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 81-92, March.
  5. Gordon, Robert J, 2000. "Does the 'New Economy' Measure up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," CEPR Discussion Papers 2607, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Silverberg, Gerald & Lehnert, Doris, 1993. "Long waves and 'evolutionary chaos' in a simple Schumpeterian model of embodied technical change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 9-37, June.
  7. Jerry A. Hausman & Bronwyn H. Hall & Zvi Griliches, 1984. "Econometric Models for Count Data with an Application to the Patents-R&D Relationship," NBER Technical Working Papers 0017, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Raa, T. ten & Wolff, E.N., 2000. "Engines of Growth in the U.S. Economy," Discussion Paper 2000-77, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  9. Crepon, Bruno & Duguet, Emmanuel, 1997. "Estimating the Innovation Function from Patent Numbers: GMM on Count Panel Data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 243-63, May-June.
  10. Crepon, B. & Duguet, E., 1995. "Research and Development, Competition and Innovation; Pseudo Maximum Likelihood and Simulated Maximum Likelihood Methods Applied to Count Data Models with Heterogeneity," Papiers d'Economie Mathématique et Applications 95.08, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
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