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Who creates poltical business cycles? : (should central banks be blamed?)

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  • Leertouwer, Erik
  • Maier, Philipp

    (Groningen University)

Abstract

Little attention has been paid in most economic studies on political businesscycles to separate the effects of fiscal and monetary policy. We attempt to as-sess the effect of monetary policy in a panel model for 16 OECD countries.To answer the question whether central banks actively create political busi-ness cycles we focus on the short-term interest rate as a proxy for the use ofmonetary instruments. Our results indicate that central banks should not beblamed for creating political business cycles as we do not find any evidencefor cyclical behavior in the short-term interest rate. This conclusion holds nomatter whether central banks are independent or not or are constrained bythe exchange rate system in force.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management) in its series Research Report with number 99E56.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:rugsom:99e56

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  1. Posen, Adam, 1998. "Central Bank Independence and Disinflationary Credibility: A Missing Link?," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 50(3), pages 335-59, July.
  2. Siklos, P.L., 1993. "Varieties of Monetary Reforms," Working Papers 93013, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics.
  3. Allen, Stuart D. & McCrickard, Donald L., 1991. "The influence of elections on federal reserve behavior," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 51-55, September.
  4. Goodhart, Charles A E, 1994. "What Should Central Banks Do? What Should Be Their Macroeconomic Objectives and Operations?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(427), pages 1424-36, November.
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  6. Eduard HOCHREITER & Georg WINCKLER, 1993. "The Advantages of Tying Austria's Hands: The Success of the Hard Currency Strategy," Vienna Economics Papers vie9307, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
  7. Eijffinger, S-C-W & de Haan, J, 1996. "The Political Economy of Central-Bank Independence," Princeton Studies in International Economics 19, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  8. Ito, Takatoshi & Park, Jin Hyuk, 1988. "Political business cycles in the parliamentary system," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 233-238.
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  10. Berger, Helge & Woitek, Ulrich, 1997. " Searching for Political Business Cycles in Germany," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 91(2), pages 179-97, April.
  11. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 353-98, September.
  12. Muscatelli, Anton, 1998. "Optimal Inflation Contracts and Inflation Targets with Uncertain Central Bank Preferences: Accountability through Independence?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 529-42, March.
  13. Nordhaus, William D, 1975. "The Political Business Cycle," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 169-90, April.
  14. Vaubel, Roland, 1997. "The bureaucratic and partisan behavior of independent central banks: German and international evidence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 201-224, May.
  15. Frey, Bruno S. & Schneider, Friedrich, 1981. "Central bank behavior : A positive empirical analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 291-315.
  16. Clark, William Roberts & Reichert, Usha Nair & Lomas, Sandra Lynn & Parker, Kevin L., 1998. "International and Domestic Constraints on Political Business Cycles in OECD Economies," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 52(01), pages 87-120, December.
  17. Nathaniel Beck, 1991. "The Fed And The Political Business Cycle," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 9(1), pages 25-38, 01.
  18. Soh, Byung Hee, 1986. "Political Business Cycles in Industrialized Democratic Countries," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 31-46.
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Cited by:
  1. Hayat, Muhammad Azmat & Farvaque, Etienne, 2012. "Public attitudes towards central bank independence: Lessons from the foundation of the ECB," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 512-523.
  2. J. Stephen Ferris, 2007. "Is the Bank of Canada any more or less independent than the Fed? – revised version: Electoral Politics and Monetary Policy: Does the Bank of Canada Contribute to a Political Business Cycle?," Carleton Economic Papers 07-02, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 08 Jan 2008.
  3. Hayo, Bernd & Hefeker, Carsten, 2002. "Reconsidering central bank independence," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 653-674, November.
  4. Silja Göhlmann & Roland Vaubel, 2005. "The Educational and Professional Background of Central Bankers and its Effect on Inflation – An Empirical Analysis," RWI Discussion Papers 0025, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
  5. Burton Abrams & Plamen Iossifov, 2006. "Does the Fed Contribute to a Political Business Cycle?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 129(3), pages 249-262, December.
  6. Alpanda, Sami & Honig, Adam, 2007. "Political Monetary Cycles and a New de facto Ranking of Central Bank Independence," MPRA Paper 5898, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Jula, Dorin, 2008. "Economic Impact of Political Cycles – The Relevance of European experinces for Romania," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 081101, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
  8. Burton A. Abrams, 2006. "How Richard Nixon Pressured Arthur Burns: Evidence from the Nixon Tapes," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 177-188, Fall.
  9. Poomjai Nacaskul & Kritchaya Janjaroen & Suparit Suwanik, 2012. "Economic Rationales for Central Banking: Historical Evolution, Policy Space, Institutional Integrity, and Paradigm Challenges," Working Papers 2012-04, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
  10. Sieg, Gernot & Stegemann, Ulrike, 2009. "Strategic debt management within the stability and growth pact," Economics Department Working Paper Series 5, Technische Universität Braunschweig, Economics Department.
  11. Claudiu-Gabriel Tiganas & Claudiu Peptine, 2012. "Political Business Cycle And Economic Instability - Literature Review," CES Working Papers, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 4, pages 853-865, December.

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