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Capital flight and political risk

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Author Info

  • Lensink, Robert
  • Hermes, Niels
  • Murinde, Victor

    (Groningen University)

Abstract

This paper investigates asymmetric effects of monetary policy over the business cycle. A two-state Markov Switching Model is employed to model both recessions and expansions. For the United States and Germany, strong evidence is found that monetary policy is more effective in a recession than during a boom. Also some evidence is found for asymmetry in the United Kingdom and Belgium. In the Netherlands, monetary policy is not very effective in either regime.

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File URL: http://irs.ub.rug.nl/ppn/188210113
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management) in its series Research Report with number 98C34.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:rugsom:98c34

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Postal: PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen
Phone: +31 50 363 7185
Fax: +31 50 363 3720
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Web page: http://som.eldoc.ub.rug.nl/
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References

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  1. Alesina, A. & Drazen, A., 1991. "Why Are Stabilizations Delayed?," Papers 6-91, Tel Aviv - the Sackler Institute of Economic Studies.
  2. Barro, Robert J, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-43, May.
  3. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
  4. Citron, Joel-Tomas & Nickelsburg, Gerald, 1987. "Country risk and political instability," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 385-392, April.
  5. Gibson, Heather D & Tsakalotos, Euclid, 1993. "Testing a Flow Model of Capital Flight in Five European Countries," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(2), pages 144-66, June.
  6. Jakob De Haan & Clemens Siermann & Erna Van Lubek, 1997. "Political instability and country risk: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(11), pages 703-707.
  7. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Suhas L Ketkar & Kusum W. Ketkar, 1989. "Determinants Of Capital Flight From Argentina, Brazil, And Mexico," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 7(3), pages 11-29, 07.
  9. Claessens, Stijn & Naude, David, 1993. "Recent estimates of capital flight," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1186, The World Bank.
  10. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Le, Quan Vu & Zak, Paul J., 2006. "Political risk and capital flight," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 308-329, March.
  2. Ndikumana, Leonce & Boyce, James K., 2003. "Public Debts and Private Assets: Explaining Capital Flight from Sub-Saharan African Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 107-130, January.
  3. Beja Jr, Edsel, 2010. "Balance of Payments-consistent unreported flows," MPRA Paper 21699, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Hermes, N. & Lensink, R., 2000. "Capital flight and the uncertainty of government policies," Research Report 00C30, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  5. Sergey SVESHNIKOV & Victor BOCHARNIKOV, 2009. "Modeling Risk Of International Country Relations," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 4(4(10)_Win), pages 558-569.
  6. Sirr, Gordon & Garvey, John & Gallagher, Liam, 2011. "Emerging markets and portfolio foreign exchange risk: An empirical investigation using a value-at-risk decomposition technique," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1749-1772.
  7. Davies, Victor A. B., 2007. "Capital flight and war," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4210, The World Bank.
  8. David Fielding & Anja Shortland, 2005. "How does political violence affect confidence in a local currency? Evidence from Egypt," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(7), pages 841-866.
  9. Mumtaz Hussain & Oscar Brookins, 2001. "On the determinants of national saving: An extreme-bounds analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 150-174, March.
  10. Léonce Ndikumana, 2003. "Capital Flows, Capital Account Regimes, and Foreign Exchange Rate Regimes in Africa," Working Papers wp55, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  11. Calderon, Cesar & Kubota, Megumi, 2011. "Sudden stops : are global and local investors alike ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5569, The World Bank.
  12. Murinde V. & Poshakwala S., 2001. "Volatility in the Emerging Stock Markets in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence on Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Slovakia," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3-4), pages 73-102, July - De.
  13. Rahim M.0 Quazi, 2014. "Corruption and Foreign Direct Investment in East Asia and South Asia: An Econometric Study," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 231-242.
  14. Maria de Boyrie & Simon Pak & John Zdanowicz, 2005. "The impact of Switzerland's money laundering law on capital flows through abnormal pricing in international trade," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(4), pages 217-230.
  15. Fofack, Hippolyte, 2009. "Causality between external debt and capital flight in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5042, The World Bank.
  16. Hermes, Niels & Lensink, Robert & Murinde, Victor, 2002. "Flight Capital and its Reversal for Development Financing," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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