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Time Series Factor Analysis with an Application to Measuring Money

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  • Gilbert, Paul D.
  • Meijer, Erik

    (Groningen University)

Abstract

Time series factor analysis (TSFA) and its associated statistical theory is developed. Unlike dynamic factor analysis (DFA), TSFA obviates the need for explicitly modeling the process dynamics of the underlying phenomena. It also differs from standard factor analysis (FA) in important respects: the factor model has a nontrivial mean structure, the observations are allowed to be dependent over time, and the data does not need to be covariance stationary as long as differenced data satisfies a weak boundedness condition. The effects on the estimation of parameters and prediction of the factors is discussed. The statistical properties of the factor score predictor are studied in a simulation study, both over repeated samples and within a given sample. Some apparent anomalies are found in simulation experiments and explained analytically.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management) in its series Research Report with number 05F10.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:rugsom:05f10

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  1. Claude Archer & Robert Jennrich, 1973. "Standard errors for rotated factor loadings," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 581-592, December.
  2. T. Anderson, 1963. "The use of factor analysis in the statistical analysis of multiple time series," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, March.
  3. Jakob de Haan & Erik Leertouwer & Erik Meijer & Tom Wansbeek, 2003. "Measuring central bank independence: a latent variables approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(3), pages 326-340, 08.
  4. Gary Chamberlain & Michael Rothschild, 1984. "Arbitrage, Factor Structure, and Mean-Variance Analysis on Large Asset Markets," NBER Working Papers 0996, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2000. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 440, Boston College Department of Economics.
  6. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Robert M. De Jong & James Davidson, 2000. "Consistency of Kernel Estimators of Heteroscedastic and Autocorrelated Covariance Matrices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(2), pages 407-424, March.
  8. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
  9. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  10. Spanos, Aris, 1984. "Liquidity as a Latent Variable-An Application of the MIMIC Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 46(2), pages 125-43, May.
  11. Robert Jennrich, 1973. "Standard errors for obliquely rotated factor loadings," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 593-604, December.
  12. Peter Molenaar, 1985. "A dynamic factor model for the analysis of multivariate time series," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 181-202, June.
  13. Erik Meijer & Tom Wansbeek, 1999. "Quadratic prediction of factor scores," Psychometrika, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 495-507, December.
  14. Watson, Mark W. & Engle, Robert F., 1983. "Alternative algorithms for the estimation of dynamic factor, mimic and varying coefficient regression models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 385-400, December.
  15. Paul D. Gilbert & Lise Pichette, 2003. "Dynamic Factor Analysis for Measuring Money," Working Papers 03-21, Bank of Canada.
  16. Jushan Bai, 2003. "Inferential Theory for Factor Models of Large Dimensions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 135-171, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Muñoz, Mª Pilar & Márquez, María Dolores & Sánchez, Josep A., 2011. "Contagion between United States and european markets during the recent crises," MPRA Paper 35993, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Klomp, Jeroen & de Haan, Jakob, 2009. "Political institutions and economic volatility," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 311-326, September.
  3. Calista Cheung & Frédérick Demers, 2007. "Evaluating Forecasts from Factor Models for Canadian GDP Growth and Core Inflation," Working Papers 07-8, Bank of Canada.

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