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A simulation model for football championships

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Author Info

  • Koning, Ruud H.
  • Koolhaas, Michael
  • Renes, Gusta

    (Groningen University)

Abstract

In this paper we discuss a simulation/probability model that identifies the team that is most likely to win a tournament. The model can also be used to answer other questions like ‘which team had a lucky draw?’ or ‘what is the probability that two teams meet at some moment in the tournament?’. Input to the simulation/probability model are scoring intensities, that are estimated as a weighted average of goals scored. The model has been used in practice to write articles for the popular press, and seems to perform well.

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File URL: http://irs.ub.rug.nl/ppn/23733030X
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management) in its series Research Report with number 01A65.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:rugsom:01a65

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Web page: http://som.eldoc.ub.rug.nl/
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  1. Koning, R.H., 2000. "An econometric evaluation of the firing of a coach on team performance," Research Report 00F40, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
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Cited by:
  1. repec:qut:auncer:2013_04 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. P Dorian Owen & Nicholas King, 2013. "Competitive Balance Measures in Sports Leagues: The Effects of Variation in Season Length," NCER Working Paper Series 92, National Centre for Econometric Research.
  3. Nicholas King & P. Dorian Owen & Rick Audas, 2010. "Playoff Uncertainty, Match Uncertainty and Attendance at Australian National Rugby League Matches," Working Papers 1007, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2010.
  4. Espitia-Escuer, Manuel A. & García-Cebrián, Lucía Isabel, 2012. "Diversificación en la configuración de los equipos de la primera división española de fútbol/Diversification in the Team Configuration of the Spanish Football First Division," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 30, pages 527-544, Agosto.

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