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A simulation model for football championships

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Author Info
Koning, Ruud H.
Koolhaas, Michael
Renes, Gusta (Groningen University)

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Abstract

In this paper we discuss a simulation/probability model that identifies the team that is most likely to win a tournament. The model can also be used to answer other questions like ‘which team had a lucky draw?’ or ‘what is the probability that two teams meet at some moment in the tournament?’. Input to the simulation/probability model are scoring intensities, that are estimated as a weighted average of goals scored. The model has been used in practice to write articles for the popular press, and seems to perform well.

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File URL: http://irs.ub.rug.nl/ppn/23733030X
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management) in its series Research Report with number 01A65.

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Date of creation: 2001
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:rugsom:01a65

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