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Forecasting with real-time macroeconomic data: the ragged-edge problem and revisions

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  • Bouwman, Kees E.
  • Jacobs, Jan P.A.M.

    (Groningen University)

Abstract

Real-time macroeconomic data are typically incomplete for today and the immediate past (?ragged edge?) and subject to revision. To enable more timely forecasts the recent missing data have to be dealt with. In the context of the U.S. leading index we assess four alternatives,paying explicit attention to publication lags and data revisions.

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File URL: http://irs.ub.rug.nl/ppn/283535911
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research in its series CCSO Working Papers with number 200505.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:rugccs:200505

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  1. S. Boragan Aruoba, 2008. "Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 319-340, 03.
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  5. Banbura, Marta & Rünstler, Gerhard, 2007. "A look into the factor model black box: publication lags and the role of hard and soft data in forecasting GDP," Working Paper Series 0751, European Central Bank.
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  7. Tom Stark and Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 258, Society for Computational Economics.
  8. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2003. "Tests of conditional predictive ability," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 572, Boston College Department of Economics.
  9. Bernanke, Ben S. & Boivin, Jean, 2003. "Monetary policy in a data-rich environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 525-546, April.
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  14. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER), 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-time Estimates of the Macro Economy," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-02, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  15. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543.
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Cited by:
  1. Deicy J. Cristiano & Manuel D. Hernández & José David Pulido, 2012. "Pronósticos de corto plazo en tiempo real para la actividad económica colombiana," Borradores de Economia 724, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Abo-Zaid, Salem, 2014. "Revisions to US labor market data and the public’s perception of the economy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 119-124.
  3. Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2007. "A real-time analysis of the Swiss trade account," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 167, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

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