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The macroeconomic dynamics of demographic shocks

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  • Heijdra, Ben J.
  • Ligthart, Jenny E.

    (Groningen University)

Abstract

The paper employs an extended Yaari-Blanchard model of overlapping generations to study how the macroeconomy is affected over time by various demographic changes. It is shown that a proportional decline in fertility and death rates has qualitatively similar effects to capital income subsidies; both per capita savings and per capita consumption increase in the new steady state. A drop in the birth rate, while keeping the death rate constant, reduces per capita savings, but increases per capita consumption, particularly if intertemporal labor supply is very elastic. If the generational turnover effect is sufficiently strong, however, a decline in the birth rate may, contrary to standard results, gives rise to an increase in per capita savings. Finally, a fertility rate reduction which leaves unaffected the rate of generational turnover is shown to have effects qualitatively similar to those of a fall in public consumption. Both per capita savings and per capita output decline, but per capita consumption rises. The non-linear model is simulated to study the quantitative effects of non-infinitesimal demographic shocks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research in its series CCSO Working Papers with number 200403.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:rugccs:200403

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Cited by:
  1. Frank Caliendo & Emin Gahramanov, 2013. "Myopia and pensions in general equilibrium," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 375-401, July.
  2. Fernando Perera-Tallo, 2012. "Optimal Retirement Age and Aging Population," 2012 Meeting Papers 728, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  3. Fisher, Walter H. & Heijdra, Ben J., 2008. "Growth and the Ageing Joneses," Economics Series 230, Institute for Advanced Studies.
  4. Heijdra, Ben J. & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2006. "The Macroeconomic Dynamics Of Demographic Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 349-370, June.
  5. Klaus Prettner, 2009. "Population ageing and endogenous economic growth," Working Papers 0908, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
  6. Fehr, Hans & Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2008. "Fertility, mortality and the developed world's demographic transition," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 455-473.
  7. Klaus Prettner & David Canning, 2012. "Increasing life expectancy and optimal retirement:does population aging necessarily undermine economic prosperity?," PGDA Working Papers 9112, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  8. Fisher, Walter H. & Heijdra, Ben J., 2009. "Keeping up with the ageing Joneses," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 53-64, January.
  9. Fedotenkov, I., 2012. "Pensions and ageing in a globalizing world. International spillover effects via trade and factor mobility," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-5590843, Tilburg University.
  10. Jochen Mierau & Stephen Turnovsky, 2014. "Capital accumulation and the sources of demographic change," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 857-894, July.
  11. Prettner, Klaus & Strulik, Holger, 2013. "Trade and productivity: The family connection redux," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 159, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  12. Nickel, Christiane & Rother, Philipp & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2008. "Population ageing and public pension reforms in a small open economy," Working Paper Series 0863, European Central Bank.

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