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The macroeconomic dynamics of demographic shocks

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Author Info
Heijdra, Ben J.
Ligthart, Jenny E. (Groningen University)

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Abstract

The paper employs an extended Yaari-Blanchard model of overlapping generations to study how the macroeconomy is affected over time by various demographic changes. It is shown that a proportional decline in fertility and death rates has qualitatively similar effects to capital income subsidies; both per capita savings and per capita consumption increase in the new steady state. A drop in the birth rate, while keeping the death rate constant, reduces per capita savings, but increases per capita consumption, particularly if intertemporal labor supply is very elastic. If the generational turnover effect is sufficiently strong, however, a decline in the birth rate may, contrary to standard results, gives rise to an increase in per capita savings. Finally, a fertility rate reduction which leaves unaffected the rate of generational turnover is shown to have effects qualitatively similar to those of a fall in public consumption. Both per capita savings and per capita output decline, but per capita consumption rises. The non-linear model is simulated to study the quantitative effects of non-infinitesimal demographic shocks.

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Paper provided by University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research in its series CCSO Working Papers with number 200403.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:rugccs:200403

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Gary S. Becker & Robert J. Barro, 1988. "A Reformulation of the Economic Theory of Fertility," NBER Working Papers 1793, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Heijdra, Ben J. & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2006. "The Macroeconomic Dynamics Of Demographic Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(03), pages 349-370, June. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-47, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Douglas W. Elmendorf & Louise M. Sheiner, 2000. "Should America Save for Its Old Age? Fiscal Policy, Population Aging, and National Saving," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 57-74, Summer. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  7. Momota, Akira & Futagami, Koichi, 2000. "Demographic transition pattern in a small country," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 231-237, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Judd, Kenneth L., 1982. "An alternative to steady-state comparisons in perfect foresight models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 55-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bovenberg, A.L., 1992. "Investment-Promoting Policies in Open Economies: The Importance of Intergenerational and International Distributional Effects," Papers 9220, Tilburg - Center for Economic Research.
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  10. Heijdra, Ben J & Ligthart, Jenny E, 2000. "The Dynamic Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Policy in an Overlapping Generations Model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(4), pages 677-701, October.
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  11. repec:bep:macadv:v:1:y:2001:i:advances/1/1:p:1008-1008 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. Bovenberg, A. Lans & Heijdra, Ben J., 1998. "Environmental tax policy and intergenerational distribution," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-24, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Buiter, Willem H, 1988. "Death, Birth, Productivity Growth and Debt Neutrality," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 279-93, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life-cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert P. Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Economic Dynamics of an Ageing Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 62, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  17. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "Overlapping families of infinitely-lived agents," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 183-198, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Robin Brooks, 2002. "Asset-Market Effects of the Baby Boom and Social-Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 402-406, May. [Downloadable!]
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch & Laurence Kotlikoff, 2004. "Fertility, Mortality, and the Developed World’s Demographic Transition," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Fisher, Walter H. & Heijdra, Ben J., 2008. "Growth and the Ageing Joneses," Economics Series 230, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Fisher, Walter H. & Heijdra, Ben J., 2007. "Keeping up with the Ageing Joneses," Economics Series 204, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Christiane Nickel & Philipp Rother & Angeliki Theophilopoulou, 2008. "Population ageing and public pension reforms in a small open economy," Working Paper Series 863, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  5. Heijdra, B.J. & Ligthart, J.E., 2004. "The macroeconomic dynamics of demographic shocks," Discussion Paper 90, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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