This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Indicators of financial crises do work! : an early-warning system for six Asian countries

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Lestano
Jacobs, Jan
Kuper, Gerard H. (Groningen University)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

Indicators of financial crisis generally do not have a good track record. This paper presents an early warning system for six countries in Asia, in which indicators do work.We distinguish three types of financial crises, currency crises, banking crises and debt crises, and extract four groups of indicators from the literatureexternal, financial, domestic (real and public), and global indicatorsthat are likely to affect the probability of financial crises. The significance of the indicator groups is tested in a multivariate logit model on a panel of six Asian countries for the period 1970:01-2001:12. An additional feature is that we examine four different currency crisis dating definitions. A within-sample signal extraction experiment reveals that some currency crises dating schemes outperform others.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://irs.ub.rug.nl/ppn/258652780
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research in its series CCSO Working Papers with number 200313.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dgr:rugccs:200313

Contact details of provider:
Postal: PO Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen
Phone: +31 50 363 7185
Fax: +31 50 363 3720
Email:
Web page: http://ccso.eldoc.ub.rug.nl/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Joke Bulthuis).

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lanoie, Paul & Lemarbre, Sylvain, 1996. "Three Approaches to Predict the Timing and Quantity of LDC Debt Rescheduling," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 28(2), pages 241-46, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Balkan, Erol M, 1992. "Political Instability, Country Risk and Probability of Default," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 24(9), pages 999-1008, September.
  3. Barry Eichengreen & Andrew K. Rose & Charles Wyplosz, 1996. "Contagious Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 5681, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001. "Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Girton, Lance & Roper, Don, 1977. "A Monetary Model of Exchange Market Pressure Applied to the Postwar Canadian Experience," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(4), pages 537-48, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda González-Hermosillo, 2004. "Empirical Modeling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 04/78, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Caprio, Gerard Jr. & Klingebiel, Daniela, 1996. "Bank insolvencies : cross-country experience," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1620, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Barry Eichengreen & Richard Portes, 1989. "The Anatomy of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 2126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Hajivassiliou, V. A., 1989. "Do the secondary markets believe in life after debt?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 252, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  12. Kenneth Rogoff, 1999. "International Institutions for Reducing Global Financial Instability," NBER Working Papers 7265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  13. Lee, Suk Hun, 1991. "Ability and willingness to service debt as explanation for commercial and official rescheduling cases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 5-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Andrew Berg & Jeffrey Sachs, 1988. "The Debt Crisis: Structural Explanations of Country Performance," NBER Working Papers 2607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  15. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Hajivassiliou, V A, 1994. "A Simulation Estimation Analysis of the External Debt Crises of Developing Countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(2), pages 109-31, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Barry Eichengreen & Carlos Arteta, 2000. "Banking Crises in Emerging Markets: Presumptions and Evidence," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series 1007, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  18. Steven B. Kamin & John W. Schindler & Shawna L. Samuel, 2001. "The contribution of domestic and external factors to emerging market devaluation crises: an early warning systems approach," International Finance Discussion Papers 711, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  19. Berg, Andrew & Pattillo, Catherine, 1999. "Predicting currency crises:: The indicators approach and an alternative," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 561-586, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Demirguc, Asli & Detragiache, Enrica, 2000. "Monitoring Banking Sector Fragility: A Multivariate Logit Approach," World Bank Economic Review, Oxford University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 287-307, May. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  21. Burkart, Oliver & Coudert, Virginie, 2002. "Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 107-133, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999. "The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems," MPRA Paper 14081, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  23. Brenda González-Hermosillo, 1996. "Banking Sector Fragility and Systemic Sources of Fragility," IMF Working Papers 96/12, International Monetary Fund.
  24. Zhiwei Zhang, 2001. "Speculative Attacks in the Asian Crisis," IMF Working Papers 01/189, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  25. Hali J. Edison, 2003. "Do indicators of financial crises work? An evaluation of an early warning system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(1), pages 11-53. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper & Lestano, 2004. "Currency crises in Asia: A multivariate logit approach," International Finance 0409005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Matthew S. Yiu & Alex Ho & Lu Jin, 2009. "Econometric Approach to Early Warnings of Vulnerability in the Banking System and Currency Markets for Hong Kong and Other EMEAP Economies," Working Papers 0908, Hong Kong Monetary Authority. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? All the bibliographic data shown here has been contributed by volunteers, thereby helping to keep this service free.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-13.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.