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Eastern enlargement of the EU: jobs, investment and welfare in present member countries

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  • Heijdra, Ben J.
  • Keuschnigg, Christian
  • Kohler, Wilhelm

    (Groningen University)

Abstract

Eastern enlargement of the EU promises gains, but also imposes fiscal costs on incumbent countries. A sensitive issue concerns immigration, jobs and wages. We address these issues in a general equilibrium framework, both analytically and through numerical simulations. Analytical results identify capital accumulation as a prime transmission channel. Using a dynamic CGE model with search unemployment of high- and low-skilled labor, we simulate the effects of enlargement on Germany finding small effects from trade, but more pronounced labor market effects from migration. Based on German model elasticities, we approximate expected benefits and costs for other member countries as well.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research in its series CCSO Working Papers with number 200213.

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Date of creation: 2002
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:rugccs:200213

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Orlagh Doyle & Jan Fidrmuc, 2005. "Who is in Favour of Enlargement? Determinants of Support for EU Membership in the Candidate's Countries Referenda," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp045, IIIS.
  2. Alho, Kari & Kaitila, Ville & Widgrén, Mika, 2008. "Offshoring, Relocation and the Speed of Convergence in the Enlarged European Union," CEPR Discussion Papers 7000, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Marilena Giannetti, 2005. "Macroeconomic Effects In the Acceding Countries," Working Papers 87, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Public Economics.
  4. Wolfgang Gerstenberger & Beate Grundig & Herbert Hofmann & Carsten Pohl & Heinz Schmalholz & Carola Vögtle & Michaela Votteler & Martin Werding, 2004. "Auswirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung auf Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen," ifo Dresden Studien, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 35, October.
  5. Kari E.O.Alho & Ville Kaitila & Mika Widgrén, 2005. "Speed of Convergence and Relocation - New EU Member Countries Catching up with the Old," Economics Working Papers 034, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
  6. Marcel Thum, 2004. "Die EU-Osterweiterung steht vor der Tür," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(01), pages 3-4, 02.
  7. Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg, 2004. "Aging, Labor Markets and Pension Reform in Austria," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2004 2004-03, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  8. Friedrich Schneider & Kausik Chaudhuri & Sumana Chatterjee, 2003. "The Size and Development of the Indian Shadow Economy and a Comparison with other 18 Asian Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Economics working papers 2003-02, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  9. Timo Baas & Herbert Brücker, 2012. "The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: evidence for Germany and the UK," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2012010, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
  10. David E. Wildasin, 2006. "Global Competition for Mobile Resources: Implications for Equity, Efficiency and Political Economy," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 52(1), pages 61-110, March.
  11. Friedrich Schneider & Alexander F. Wagner, 2003. "Tradeable permits - Ten key design issues," Economics working papers 2003-04, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
  12. Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert, 2012. "The macroeconomic consequences of migration diversion: Evidence for Germany and the UK," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 180-194.
  13. Torstein Bye & Erling Holmøy & Kim Massey Heide, 2006. "Removing policy based comparative advantage for energy intensive production. Necessary adjustments of the real exchange rate and industry structure," Discussion Papers 462, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  14. Kohler, Wilhelm, 2004. "Eastern enlargement of the EU: a comprehensive welfare assessment," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 865-888, October.
  15. Friedrich Schneider & Alexander F. Wagner & Mathias Dufour, 2003. "Satisfaction not guaranteed-Institutions and satisfaction with democracy in Western Europe," Economics working papers 2003-03, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.

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