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Does uncertainty affect economic growth? : an empirical analysis

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  • Lensink, Robert
  • Bo, Hong
  • Sterken, Elmer

    (Groningen University)

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of uncertainty on economic growth. We construct measures of export uncertainty, government policy uncertainty and price uncertainty to augment a growth model, and using econometric techniques we test for robustness of the effects of these measure on economic growth in a cross-section of 138 developing and developed economies during 1970-1995. The result clearly shows a robust and negative effect of uncertainty on economic growth. These results underline the importance of export stability and policy credibility.

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File URL: http://irs.ub.rug.nl/ppn/241005248
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research in its series CCSO Working Papers with number 199902.

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Date of creation: 1999
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:rugccs:199902

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References

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  1. Abigail Barr, 1995. "The missing factor: entrepreneurial networks, enterprises and economic growth in Ghana," Economics Series Working Papers WPS/1995-11, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  2. Andrew B. Abel & Janice C. Eberly, 1995. "A Unified Model of Investment Under Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 4296, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. King, Robert G & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 717-37, August.
  4. Ghosal, Vivek, 1995. "Input Choices under Price Uncertainty," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(1), pages 142-58, January.
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  6. Martin, Philippe & Rogers, Carol Ann, 1997. "Stabilization Policy, Learning-by-Doing, and Economic Growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(2), pages 152-66, April.
  7. Peeters, Marga, 1997. "Does demand and price uncertainty affect Belgian and Spanish corporate investment?," MPRA Paper 23604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Aymo Brunetti & Beatrice Weder, 1998. "Investment and institutional uncertainty: A comparative study of different uncertainty measures," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 513-533, September.
  9. Roubini, Nouriel & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Financial repression and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 5-30, July.
  10. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P. & Marion, Nancy P., 1993. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and private investment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 207-210.
  11. Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 2000. "The Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in Small and Large Businesses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 338-343, May.
  12. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 85-106, February.
  13. Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1995. "Transfers, social safety nets and economic growth," Economics Working Papers 139, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  14. John V. Leahy & Toni M. Whited, 1995. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," NBER Working Papers 4986, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Xavier X. Sala-i-Martin, 1997. "I Just Ran Four Million Regressions," NBER Working Papers 6252, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
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  18. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-33, March.
  19. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
  20. Bo, Hong & Sterken, Elmer, 2002. "Volatility of the interest rate, debt and firm investment: Dutch evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 179-193, March.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rossitsa Rangelova, 2009. "Changing Determinants of the Economic Growth – Theoretical Base and Specifics of the Empirics," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 3-32.
  2. Ivan Stoykov, 2012. "Bulgarian Economy in the Conditions of European Integration (Bulgarian)," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 3-20.
  3. Amber Fatima & Abdul Waheed, 2011. "Effects of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 112-123, September.
  4. Jean-Louis Combes & Tahsin Saadi-Sedik, 2006. "How does trade openness influence budget deficits in developing countries?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(8), pages 1401-1416.
  5. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Harald Badinger, 2012. "Output Volatility, Economic Growth, and Cross-Country Spillovers: New Evidence for the G7 Countries," FIW Working Paper series 098, FIW.
  6. Lensink, R., 2000. "Is there an uncertainty-laffer curve?," Research Report 00E12, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
  7. Galindev Ragchaasuren, 2005. "The Relationship between Growth and Volatility under Alternative Shocks," Economics Discussion Papers 589, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
  8. Ftiti, Zied, 2010. "The macroeconomic performance of the inflation targeting policy: An approach based on the evolutionary co-spectral analysis (extension for the case of a multivariate process)," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 468-476, January.
  9. Maria Abreu & Henri L.F. de Groot & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2005. "A Meta-Analysis of Beta-Convergence: The Legendary Two-Percent," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-001/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  10. Artelaris, Panagiotis & Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George, 2006. "Theoretical and Methodological Study on Dynamic Growth Regions and Factors Explaining their Growth Performance," Papers DYNREG02, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  11. Bernhard Felderer, 2001. "Warum unterscheiden sich die langfristigen Wachstums- und Produktivitätstrends Europas und der USA?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(01), pages 15-23, 03.
  12. Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George & Pavleas, Sotiris, 2007. "Determinants of economic growth: the experts’ view," Papers DYNREG20, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  13. Spiliopoulos, Leonidas, 2010. "The determinants of macroeconomic volatility: A Bayesian model averaging approach," MPRA Paper 26832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Artelaris, Panagiotis & Arvanitidis, Paschalis & Petrakos, George, 2007. "Explaining Knowledge-Based Economic Dynamism in a Global Scale," Papers DYNREG05, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  15. Maria Abreu & Henri L.F. de Groot & Raymond J.G.M. Florax, 2005. "A Meta-Analysis of Beta-Convergence: The Legendary Two-Percent," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-001/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  16. Bo, Hong, 2001. "Volatility of sales, expectation errors, and inventory investment: Firm level evidence," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 273-283, August.
  17. Ivan Stoykov, 2012. "Bulgarian Economy in the Conditions of European Integration (English)," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 3, pages 21-36.
  18. Gerald Stuber, 2001. "Implications of Uncertainty about Long-Run Inflation and the Price Level," Working Papers 01-16, Bank of Canada.
  19. Aiello, Francesco, 2002. "Financial stabilization systems, economic growth of developing countries and EU’s STABEX," MPRA Paper 38099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Muhammad Azam & Muhammad Khan & Nasir Iqbal, 2012. "Impact of Political Risk and Uncertainty on FDI in South Asia," Transition Studies Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 59-77, September.
  21. Bisio, Laura & Ventura, Luigi, 2012. "Growth and volatility reconsidered: reconciling opposite views," MPRA Paper 35937, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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