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Fundamental volatility is regime specific

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Author Info

  • Ivo J.M. Arnold
  • Ronald MacDonald
  • Casper G. de Vries

    (Nyenrode Business Universiteit)

Abstract

A widely held notion holds that freely floating exchange rates are excessively volatile when judged against fundamentals and when moving from fixed to floating exchange rates. We re-examine the data and conclude that the disparity between the fundamentals and exchange rate volatility is more apparent than real, especially when the Deutsche Mark, rather than the dollar is chosen as the numeraire currency. We also argue, and indeed demonstrate, that in cross-regime comparisons one has to account for certain ‘missing variables’ which compensate for the fundamental variables’ volatility under fixed rates.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Nyenrode Business Universiteit in its series Nyenrode Research Papers Series with number 06-04.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:nijrep:2006-04

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Web page: http://www.library.nyenrode.nl

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Keywords: Exchange rates; Exchange rate regimes; Excess volatility.;

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