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Cross-Border Exposures and Financial Contagion

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Author Info
Degryse, H.A.
Elahi, M.A.
Penas, M.F. (Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economics Center)

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Abstract

Integrated financial markets provide opportunities for expansion and improved risk sharing, but also pose threats of contagion risk through cross-border exposures. This paper examines cross-border contagion risk over the period 1999-2006. To that purpose we use aggregate cross-border exposures of seventeen countries as reported in the BIS Consolidated Banking Statistics. We find that a shock which affects the liabilities of one country may undermine the stability of the entire financial system. Particularly, a shock wiping out 25% (35%) of US (UK) cross-border liabilities against non-US (non-UK) banks could lead to bank contagion eroding at least 94% (45%) of the recipient countries’ banking assets. We also find that since 2006 a shock to Eastern Europe, Turkey and Russia affects most countries. Our simulations also reveal that the “speed of propagation of contagion†has increased in recent years resulting in a higher number of directly exposed banking systems. Finally we find that contagion is more widespread in geographical proximities. JEL codes: G15; G20; G29; Keywords: Cross-border contagion; financial integration; financial stability.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center in its series Discussion Paper with number 2009-008.

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Date of creation: 2009
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:kubtil:2009008

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  1. Gropp, Reint & Moerman, Gerard, 2004. "Measurement of contagion in banks' equity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 405-459, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Furfine, Craig H, 2003. " Interbank Exposures: Quantifying the Risk of Contagion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 111-28, February.
  3. Patrick McGuire & Nikola Tarashev, 2007. "Global monitoring with the BIS international banking statistics," CGFS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Research on global financial stability: the use of BIS international financial statistics, volume 29, pages 176-204 Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  4. Martin Summer & Helmut Elsinger & Alfred Lehar, 2002. "Risk Assessment for Banking Systems," Working Papers 79, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank). [Downloadable!]
  5. Iman van Lelyveld & Franka Liedorp, 2006. "Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector: A Sensitivity Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(2), May. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Jeannette Müller, 2006. "Interbank Credit Lines as a Channel of Contagion," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 37-60, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Diamond, Douglas W & Dybvig, Philip H, 1983. "Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(3), pages 401-19, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Angelini, P. & Maresca, G. & Russo, D., 1996. "Systemic risk in the netting system," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 853-868, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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